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Cost/benefit analysis of Covid-19 pandemic suppression using an SEIR model

Author

Listed:
  • Vines, David
  • Maciejowski, Jan
  • Rowthorn, Robert
  • Sheffield, Scott
  • Williamson, Annie

Abstract

In the United Kingdom, as elsewhere, there has been a debate on how to escape from lockdown without provoking a resurgence of the Covid-19 disease. This paper presents a simple cost-benefit analysis inspired by optimal control theory, incorporating an SEIR model of disease propagation. Our calibration accords with UK experience and simulations start from the beginning of January 2021. The optimal path for government intervention is computed under different assumptions about the value of life. We examine how the test & trace system and vaccination affect this optimal path and show that these policies are complements. Test & trace has most effect at the beginning when prevalence is high, whereas vaccination only affects infections gradually. Comparing optimal paths, we show that economic cost is much lower under vaccination alone than under test & trace alone. Deaths, in contrast, are somewhat higher under vaccination. In general, the greater is the value of life, the longer is the optimal lockdown. Under certain conditions, this relationship is discontinuous: a small increase in the value of life leads to a jump in the optimal length of lockdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Vines, David & Maciejowski, Jan & Rowthorn, Robert & Sheffield, Scott & Williamson, Annie, 2021. "Cost/benefit analysis of Covid-19 pandemic suppression using an SEIR model," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-14, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:amz:wpaper:2021-14
    as

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    File URL: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/files/Optimal_control_and_pandemic_policy-6-April.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. repec:aei:rpaper:1008589856 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Claudius Gros & Roser Valenti & Lukas Schneider & Kilian Valenti & Daniel Gros, 2020. "Containment efficiency and control strategies for the Corona pandemic costs," Papers 2004.00493, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; cost-benefit; lockdown; SEIR; pandemic;
    All these keywords.

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