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Influence Of Climate Change On The Corn Yield In Ontario And Its Impact On Corn Farms Income At The 2068 Horizon

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  • Antoine Kornprobst
  • Matt Davison

Abstract

Our study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on corn farming in Ontario under several warming scenarios at the 2068 horizon. It is articulated around a discrete-time dynamic model of corn farm income with an annual time-step, corresponding to one agricultural cycle from planting to harvest. At each period, we compute the income given the corn yield, which is highly dependent on weather variables. We also provide a reproducible forecast of the yearly distribution of corn yield for 10 cities in Ontario. The price of corn futures at harvest time is taken into account and we fit our model by using 49 years of historical data. We then conduct out-of-sample Monte-Carlo simulations to obtain the farm income forecasts under a given climate change scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Kornprobst & Matt Davison, 2020. "Influence Of Climate Change On The Corn Yield In Ontario And Its Impact On Corn Farms Income At The 2068 Horizon," Papers 2003.01270, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.01270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2018. "Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 219-234.
    2. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    3. Jinxia Wang & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Jikun Huang, 2010. "How Chinese Farmers Change Crop Choice To Adapt To Climate Change," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(03), pages 167-185.
    4. Kolk, Ans & Pinkse, Jonatan, 2004. "Market Strategies for Climate Change," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 304-314, June.
    5. Harry M. Kaiser & Susan J. Riha & Daniel S. Wilks & David G. Rossiter & Radha Sampath, 1993. "A Farm-Level Analysis of Economic and Agronomic Impacts of Gradual Climate Warming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(2), pages 387-398.
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    1. Jagdeep Kaur Brar & Antoine Kornprobst & Willard John Braun & Matthew Davison & Warren Hare, 2021. "A Case Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Loan Credit Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-23, November.

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