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Adaptive Portfolio by Solving Multi-armed Bandit via Thompson Sampling

Author

Listed:
  • Mengying Zhu
  • Xiaolin Zheng
  • Yan Wang
  • Yuyuan Li
  • Qianqiao Liang

Abstract

As the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory, Markowitz's mean-variance optimization is considered a major model adopted in portfolio management. However, due to the difficulty of estimating its parameters, it cannot be applied to all periods. In some cases, naive strategies such as Equally-weighted and Value-weighted portfolios can even get better performance. Under these circumstances, we can use multiple classic strategies as multiple strategic arms in multi-armed bandit to naturally establish a connection with the portfolio selection problem. This can also help to maximize the rewards in the bandit algorithm by the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. In this paper, we present a portfolio bandit strategy through Thompson sampling which aims to make online portfolio choices by effectively exploiting the performances among multiple arms. Also, by constructing multiple strategic arms, we can obtain the optimal investment portfolio to adapt different investment periods. Moreover, we devise a novel reward function based on users' different investment risk preferences, which can be adaptive to various investment styles. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed portfolio strategy has marked superiority across representative real-world market datasets in terms of extensive evaluation criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Mengying Zhu & Xiaolin Zheng & Yan Wang & Yuyuan Li & Qianqiao Liang, 2019. "Adaptive Portfolio by Solving Multi-armed Bandit via Thompson Sampling," Papers 1911.05309, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1911.05309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Zhengyao Jiang & Dixing Xu & Jinjun Liang, 2017. "A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for the Financial Portfolio Management Problem," Papers 1706.10059, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    3. Zhipeng Liang & Hao Chen & Junhao Zhu & Kangkang Jiang & Yanran Li, 2018. "Adversarial Deep Reinforcement Learning in Portfolio Management," Papers 1808.09940, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    4. Daniel Russo & Benjamin Van Roy, 2014. "Learning to Optimize via Posterior Sampling," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 1221-1243, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongda Hu & Arthur Charpentier & Mario Ghossoub & Alexander Schied, 2022. "Multiarmed Bandits Problem Under the Mean-Variance Setting," Papers 2212.09192, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.

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