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A Stochastic Control Approach to Managed Futures Portfolios

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  • Tim Leung
  • Raphael Yan

Abstract

We study a stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios. Building on the Schwartz 97 stochastic convenience yield model for commodity prices, we formulate a utility maximization problem for dynamically trading a single-maturity futures or multiple futures contracts over a finite horizon. By analyzing the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, we solve the investor's utility maximization problem explicitly and derive the optimal dynamic trading strategies in closed form. We provide numerical examples and illustrate the optimal trading strategies using WTI crude oil futures data.

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  • Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2018. "A Stochastic Control Approach to Managed Futures Portfolios," Papers 1811.01916, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1811.01916
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gert Elaut & Péter Erdős & John Sjödin, 2016. "An Analysis of the Risk‐Return Characteristics of Serially Correlated Managed Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(10), pages 992-1013, October.
    2. Greg N. Gregoriou & Georges Hübner & Maher Kooli, 2010. "Performance and persistence of Commodity Trading Advisors: Further evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 725-752, August.
    3. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(4), pages 281-304, December.
    4. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2018. "Dynamic Index Tracking and Risk Exposure Control Using Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 180-212, March.
    5. Christian-Oliver Ewald & Aihua Zhang & Zhe Zong, 2019. "On the calibration of the Schwartz two-factor model to WTI crude oil options and the extended Kalman Filter," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 119-130, November.
    6. Gonzalo Cortazar & Lorenzo Naranjo, 2006. "An N‐factor Gaussian model of oil futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 243-268, March.
    7. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    8. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2018. "Optimal dynamic pairs trading of futures under a two-factor mean-reverting model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-23, September.
    9. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2015. "The golden target: analyzing the tracking performance of leveraged gold ETFs," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 278-297, August.
    10. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2019. "Optimal dynamic basis trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 307-335, September.
    11. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2016. "Futures Trading Under Mean Reversion," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Optimal Mean Reversion Trading Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications, chapter 5, pages 105-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaodong Chen & Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2022. "Constrained dynamic futures portfolios with stochastic basis," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2020. "Tracking VIX with VIX Futures: Portfolio Construction and Performance," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John B Guerard & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH, chapter 21, pages 557-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2019. "Optimal dynamic futures portfolio in a regime-switching market framework," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2020. "Optimal trading of a basket of futures contracts," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 253-280, June.
    5. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2019. "Optimal dynamic basis trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 307-335, September.
    6. Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2020. "Optimal dynamic futures portfolio in a regime-switching market framework," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-27, February.

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