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Constrained dynamic futures portfolios with stochastic basis

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaodong Chen

    (University of Chicago)

  • Tim Leung

    (University of Washington)

  • Yang Zhou

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

We study the problem of dynamically trading multiple futures contracts on different underlying assets subject to portfolio constraints. The spreads between futures and spot prices are modeled by a multidimensional scaled Brownian bridge to account for their convergence at maturity. Under this stochastic basis model, we apply the stochastic control approach to rigorously derive the optimal trading strategies via utility maximization. This leads to the analysis of the associated system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, which are reduced to a system of ODEs. A series of numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal strategies and wealth distributions under different portfolio constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaodong Chen & Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2022. "Constrained dynamic futures portfolios with stochastic basis," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-33, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:18:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-021-00398-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-021-00398-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Min Dai & Yifei Zhong & Yue Kuen Kwok, 2011. "Optimal arbitrage strategies on stock index futures under position limits," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 394-406, April.
    2. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li, 2018. "Optimal Timing to Trade along a Randomized Brownian Bridge," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Jun Liu, 2004. "Losing Money on Arbitrage: Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice in Markets with Arbitrage Opportunities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 611-641.
    4. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2019. "A stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-22, March.
    5. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 7-31, January.
    6. Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2019. "Optimal dynamic futures portfolio in a regime-switching market framework," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2018. "Dynamic Index Tracking and Risk Exposure Control Using Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 180-212, March.
    8. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2015. "The golden target: analyzing the tracking performance of leveraged gold ETFs," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 278-297, August.
    9. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2020. "Optimal trading of a basket of futures contracts," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 253-280, June.
    10. Bahman Angoshtari, 2016. "On the Market-Neutrality of Optimal Pairs-Trading Strategies," Papers 1608.08268, arXiv.org.
    11. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan & Yang Zhou, 2021. "Optimal Dynamic Futures Portfolio Under A Multifactor Gaussian Framework," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(05), pages 1-27, August.
    12. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2019. "Optimal dynamic basis trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 307-335, September.
    13. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2018. "Optimal dynamic pairs trading of futures under a two-factor mean-reverting model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-23, September.
    14. Jun Liu & Allan Timmermann, 2013. "Optimal Convergence Trade Strategies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 1048-1086.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures portfolio; Futures basis; Portfolio constraints; Utility maximization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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