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Long-time trajectorial large deviations for affine stochastic volatility models and application to variance reduction for option pricing

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  • Zorana Grbac
  • David Krief
  • Peter Tankov

Abstract

This work extends the variance reduction method for the pricing of possibly path-dependent derivatives, which was developed in (Genin and Tankov, 2016) for exponential L\'evy models, to affine stochastic volatility models (Keller-Ressel, 2011). We begin by proving a pathwise large deviations principle for affine stochastic volatility models. We then apply a time-dependent Esscher transform to the affine process and use Varadhan's lemma, in the fashion of (Guasoni and Robertson, 2008) and (Robertson, 2010), to approximate the problem of finding the Esscher measure that minimises the variance of the Monte-Carlo estimator. We test the method on the Heston model with and without jumps to demonstrate the numerical efficiency of the method.

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  • Zorana Grbac & David Krief & Peter Tankov, 2018. "Long-time trajectorial large deviations for affine stochastic volatility models and application to variance reduction for option pricing," Papers 1809.06153, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1809.06153
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paolo Guasoni & Scott Robertson, 2008. "Optimal importance sampling with explicit formulas in continuous time," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Paul Glasserman & Philip Heidelberger & Perwez Shahabuddin, 1999. "Asymptotically Optimal Importance Sampling and Stratification for Pricing Path‐Dependent Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 117-152, April.
    3. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    4. Adrien Genin & Peter Tankov, 2016. "Optimal importance sampling for L\'evy Processes," Papers 1608.04621, arXiv.org.
    5. Robertson, Scott, 2010. "Sample path Large Deviations and optimal importance sampling for stochastic volatility models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 66-83, January.
    6. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non‐Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck‐based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
    7. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    8. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 1997. "Processes of normal inverse Gaussian type," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 41-68.
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