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Cancer Risk Messages: A Light Bulb Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ka C. Chan
  • Ruth F. G. Williams
  • Christopher T. Lenard
  • Terence M. Mills

Abstract

The meaning of public messages such as "One in x people gets cancer" or "One in y people gets cancer by age z" can be improved. One assumption commonly invoked is that there is no other cause of death, a confusing assumption. We develop a light bulb model to clarify cumulative risk and we use Markov chain modeling, incorporating the assumption widely in place, to evaluate transition probabilities. Age-progression in the cancer risk is then reported on Australian data. Future modelling can elicit realistic assumptions.

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  • Ka C. Chan & Ruth F. G. Williams & Christopher T. Lenard & Terence M. Mills, 2018. "Cancer Risk Messages: A Light Bulb Model," Papers 1807.03040, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1807.03040
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1807.03040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeff Powell, 2012. "International finance," Chapters, in: Jan Toporowski & Jo Michell (ed.), Handbook of Critical Issues in Finance, chapter 24, pages i-ii, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Ruth F. G. Williams & Ka C. Chan & Christopher T. Lenard & Terence M. Mills, 2018. "Cancer Risk Messages: Public Health and Economic Welfare," Papers 1807.03045, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruth F. G. Williams & Ka C. Chan & Christopher T. Lenard & Terence M. Mills, 2018. "Cancer Risk Messages: Public Health and Economic Welfare," Papers 1807.03045, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.

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