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A Dynamic Model of Central Counterparty Risk

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  • Tomasz R. Bielecki
  • Igor Cialenco
  • Shibi Feng

Abstract

We introduce a dynamic model of the default waterfall of derivatives CCPs and propose a risk sensitive method for sizing the initial margin (IM), and the default fund (DF) and its allocation among clearing members. Using a Markovian structure model of joint credit migrations, our evaluation of DF takes into account the joint credit quality of clearing members as they evolve over time. Another important aspect of the proposed methodology is the use of the time consistent dynamic risk measures for computation of IM and DF. We carry out a comprehensive numerical study, where, in particular, we analyze the advantages of the proposed methodology and its comparison with the currently prevailing methods used in industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Shibi Feng, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Central Counterparty Risk," Papers 1803.02012, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1803.02012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Binbin Deng, 2017. "Counterparty risk, central counterparty clearing and aggregate risk," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 355-400, November.
    2. H Peyton Young & Mark Paddrik, 2017. "How Safe are Central Counterparties in Derivatives Markets?," Economics Series Working Papers 826, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2016. "A survey of time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time: LM-measure perspective," Papers 1603.09030, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
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    6. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera, 2014. "A unified approach to time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time," Papers 1409.7028, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2017.
    7. Vicente, L.A.B.G. & Cerezetti, F.V. & De Faria, S.R. & Iwashita, T. & Pereira, O.R., 2015. "Managing risk in multi-asset class, multimarket central counterparties: The CORE approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 119-130.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Sin Chang, 2018. "Systemic Risk and the Dependence Structures," Papers 1809.03425, arXiv.org.
    2. Bielecki Tomasz R. & Cialenco Igor & Pitera Marcin & Schmidt Thorsten, 2020. "Fair estimation of capital risk allocation," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 37(1-2), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Marcin Pitera & Thorsten Schmidt, 2019. "Fair Estimation of Capital Risk Allocation," Papers 1902.10044, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.

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