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How Safe are Central Counterparties in Derivatives Markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Paddrik

    (Office of Financial Research, U.S. Treasury)

  • Peyton Young

    (University of Oxford, Nuffield College)

Abstract

We propose a general framework for estimating the likelihood of default by central counterparties (CCP) in derivatives markets. Unlike conventional stress testing approaches, which estimate the ability of a CCP to withstand nonpayment by its two largest counterparties, we study the direct and indirect effects of nonpayment by members and/or their clients through the full network of exposures. We illustrate the approach for the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market under shocks that are similar in magnitude to the Federal Reserve's stress tests. The analysis indicates that conventional stress testing approaches may underestimate the potential vulnerability of the main CCP for this market.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Paddrik & Peyton Young, 2018. "How Safe are Central Counterparties in Derivatives Markets?," 2018 Meeting Papers 934, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:934
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rama Cont & Andreea Minca, 2016. "Credit default swaps and systemic risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 523-547, December.
    2. France, Virginia G. & Kahn, Charles M., 2016. "Law as a constraint on bailouts: Emergency support for central counterparties," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 22-31.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2015. "Central clearing and collateral demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 237-256.
    4. Stefano Giglio, 2011. "Credit default swap spreads and systemic financial risk," Proceedings 1122, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Mark Paddrik & Sriram Rajan & H. Peyton Young, 2020. "Contagion in Derivatives Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3603-3616, August.
    6. repec:aei:rpaper:25935 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    8. Office of Financial Research (ed.), . "New Public Disclosures Shed Light on Central Counterparties," Viewpoint Papers, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 17-02, May.
    9. Mark Paddrik & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in the CDS Market," Working Papers 16-12, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    10. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    11. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Ghamami, Samim & Glasserman, Paul, 2017. "Does OTC derivatives reform incentivize central clearing?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 76-87.
    13. Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
    14. Douglas D. Evanoff & Daniela Russo & Robert Steigerwald, 2006. "Policymakers, researchers, and practitioners discuss the role of central counterparties," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q IV), pages 2-21.
    15. Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Ota, Tomohiro & Vital, Mathieu & Wetherilt, Anne, 2013. "Financial Stability Paper No 19: Central counterparties and their financial resources – a numerical approach," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 19, Bank of England.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Farmer, J Doyne & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M & Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Wetzer, Thom, 2020. "Foundations of system-wide financial stress testing with heterogeneous institutions," Bank of England working papers 861, Bank of England.
    2. Kanno, Masayasu, 2020. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Metrick, Andrew, 2021. "Stress Tests and Policy," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Grothe, Magdalena & Pancost, N. Aaron & Tompaidis, Stathis, 2023. "Collateral competition: Evidence from central counterparties," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 536-556.
    5. Radoslav Raykov, 2019. "Systemic Risk and Collateral Adequacy," Staff Working Papers 19-23, Bank of Canada.
    6. Marco Bardoscia & Ginestra Bianconi & Gerardo Ferrara, 2019. "Multiplex network analysis of the UK over‐the‐counter derivatives market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1520-1544, October.
    7. Jin-Wook Chang, 2019. "Collateralized Debt Networks with Lender Default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Wang, Hu & Li, Shouwei, 2020. "Risk contagion in multilayer network of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    9. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Shibi Feng, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Central Counterparty Risk," Papers 1803.02012, arXiv.org.
    10. Melinda Friesz & Kira Muratov-Szabó & Andrea Prepuk & Kata Váradi, 2021. "Risk Mutualization in Central Clearing: An Answer to the Cross-Guarantee Phenomenon from the Financial Stability Viewpoint," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-19, August.
    11. Dermot Turing & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2018. "The Morning After--The Impact on Collateral Supply After a Major Default," IMF Working Papers 2018/228, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Shibi Feng, 2018. "A Dynamic Model Of Central Counterparty Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-34, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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