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Mean Field Game Approach to Production and Exploration of Exhaustible Commodities

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  • Michael Ludkovski
  • Xuwei Yang

Abstract

In a game theoretic framework, we study energy markets with a continuum of homogenous producers who produce energy from an exhaustible resource such as oil. Each producer simultaneously optimizes production rate that drives her revenues, as well as exploration effort to replenish her reserves. This exploration activity is modeled through a controlled point process that leads to stochastic increments to reserves level. The producers interact with each other through the market price that depends on the aggregate production. We employ a mean field game approach to solve for a Markov Nash equilibrium and develop numerical schemes to solve the resulting system of non-local HJB and transport equations with non-local coupling. A time-stationary formulation is also explored, as well as the fluid limit where exploration becomes deterministic.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Ludkovski & Xuwei Yang, 2017. "Mean Field Game Approach to Production and Exploration of Exhaustible Commodities," Papers 1710.05131, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1710.05131
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Guéant & Pierre Louis Lions & Jean-Michel Lasry, 2011. "Mean Field Games and Applications," Post-Print hal-01393103, HAL.
    2. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Chang, Sheldon, 1982. "Optimal pricing, use, and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March.
    3. Deshmukh, Sudhakar D & Pliska, Stanley R, 1980. "Optimal Consumption and Exploration of Nonrenewable Resources under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 177-200, January.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
    5. Patrick Hagan & Diana Woodward & Russel Caflisch & Joseph Keller, 1994. "Optimal pricing, use and exploration of uncertain natural resources," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 87-108.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vicknair, David & Tansey, Michael & O'Brien, Thomas E., 2022. "Measuring fossil fuel reserves: A simulation and review of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Ryan Donnelly & Zi Li, 2022. "Dynamic Inventory Management with Mean-Field Competition," Papers 2210.17208, arXiv.org.
    3. Arvind V. Shrivats & Dena Firoozi & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2022. "A mean‐field game approach to equilibrium pricing in solar renewable energy certificate markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 779-824, July.
    4. Dena Firoozi & Arvind V Shrivats & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2021. "Principal agent mean field games in REC markets," Papers 2112.11963, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    5. Ryan Donnelly & Tim Leung, 2019. "Effort Expenditure For Cash Flow In A Mean-Field Equilibrium," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Steven Campbell & Yichao Chen & Arvind Shrivats & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2021. "Deep Learning for Principal-Agent Mean Field Games," Papers 2110.01127, arXiv.org.

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