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On parameter identification in stochastic differential equations by penalized maximum likelihood

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  • Fabian Dunker
  • Thorsten Hohage

Abstract

In this paper we present nonparametric estimators for coefficients in stochastic differential equation if the data are described by independent, identically distributed random variables. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear ill-posed operator equation with a deterministic forward operator described by the Fokker-Planck equation. We derive convergence rates of the risk for penalized maximum likelihood estimators with convex penalty terms and for Newton-type methods. The assumptions of our general convergence results are verified for estimation of the drift coefficient. The advantages of log-likelihood compared to quadratic data fidelity terms are demonstrated in Monte-Carlo simulations.

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  • Fabian Dunker & Thorsten Hohage, 2014. "On parameter identification in stochastic differential equations by penalized maximum likelihood," Papers 1404.0651, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1404.0651
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    1. A. Hurn & J. Jeisman & K. Lindsay, 2007. "Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks: Improved Estimation of the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations by Numerical Solution of the Fokker-Planck Equation," NCER Working Paper Series 9, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Dunker, Fabian & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Hohage, Thorsten & Johannes, Jan & Mammen, Enno, 2014. "Iterative estimation of solutions to noisy nonlinear operator equations in nonparametric instrumental regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 444-455.
    3. Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Yvo Pokern & Gareth O. Roberts & Andrew M. Stuart, 2012. "Nonparametric estimation of diffusions: a differential equations approach," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 99(3), pages 511-531.
    4. Hoffmann, Marc, 1999. "Adaptive estimation in diffusion processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 135-163, January.
    5. Pokern, Y. & Stuart, A.M. & van Zanten, J.H., 2013. "Posterior consistency via precision operators for Bayesian nonparametric drift estimation in SDEs," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 603-628.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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