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Trade arrival dynamics and quote imbalance in a limit order book

Author

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  • Alexander Lipton
  • Umberto Pesavento
  • Michael G Sotiropoulos

Abstract

We examine the dynamics of the bid and ask queues of a limit order book and their relationship with the intensity of trade arrivals. In particular, we study the probability of price movements and trade arrivals as a function of the quote imbalance at the top of the limit order book. We propose a stochastic model in an attempt to capture the joint dynamics of the top of the book queues and the trading process, and describe a semi-analytic approach to calculate the relative probability of market events. We calibrate the model using historical market data and discuss the quality of fit and practical applications of the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Lipton & Umberto Pesavento & Michael G Sotiropoulos, 2013. "Trade arrival dynamics and quote imbalance in a limit order book," Papers 1312.0514, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1312.0514
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. P. B. Lerner, 2020. "Dual State-Space Model of Market Liquidity: The Chinese Experience 2009-2010," Papers 2004.06200, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    2. Zhicheng Li & Haipeng Xing & Xinyun Chen, 2019. "A multifactor regime-switching model for inter-trade durations in the limit order market," Papers 1912.00764, arXiv.org.
    3. Li, Zhicheng & Chen, Xinyun & Xing, Haipeng, 2023. "A multifactor regime-switching model for inter-trade durations in the high-frequency limit order market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2019. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Working Papers hal-01799398, HAL.
    5. Claudio Bellani & Damiano Brigo & Alex Done & Eyal Neuman, 2018. "Static vs Adaptive Strategies for Optimal Execution with Signals," Papers 1811.11265, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    6. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2018. "DeepLOB: Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books," Papers 1808.03668, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    7. Eduardo Abi Jaber & Eyal Neuman, 2022. "Optimal Liquidation with Signals: the General Propagator Case," Working Papers hal-03835948, HAL.
    8. Eyal Neuman & Yufei Zhang, 2023. "Statistical Learning with Sublinear Regret of Propagator Models," Papers 2301.05157, arXiv.org.
    9. Eduardo Abi Jaber & Eyal Neuman, 2022. "Optimal Liquidation with Signals: the General Propagator Case," Papers 2211.00447, arXiv.org.
    10. Emmanouil Sfendourakis & Ioane Muni Toke, 2021. "LOB modeling using Hawkes processes with a state-dependent factor," Papers 2107.12872, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    11. Álvaro Cartea & Sebastian Jaimungal & Damir Kinzebulatov, 2016. "Algorithmic Trading With Learning," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-30, June.
    12. Xuan Tao & Andrew Day & Lan Ling & Samuel Drapeau, 2020. "On Detecting Spoofing Strategies in High Frequency Trading," Papers 2009.14818, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    13. Charles-Albert Lehalle & Eyal Neuman, 2019. "Incorporating signals into optimal trading," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 275-311, April.
    14. Hadrien De March & Charles-Albert Lehalle, 2018. "Optimal trading using signals," Papers 1811.03718, arXiv.org.
    15. Panayi, Efstathios & Peters, Gareth W. & Danielsson, Jon & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2018. "Designating market maker behaviour in limit order book markets," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 20-44.
    16. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2020. "Marked point processes and intensity ratios for limit order book modeling," Papers 2001.08442, arXiv.org.
    17. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2022. "Marked point processes and intensity ratios for limit order book modeling," Post-Print hal-02465428, HAL.
    18. Kyle Bechler & Michael Ludkovski, 2017. "Order Flows and Limit Order Book Resiliency on the Meso-Scale," Papers 1708.02715, arXiv.org.
    19. Peter B. Lerner, 2022. "Fourier Integral Operator Model of Market Liquidity: The Chinese Experience 2009–2010," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-25, July.
    20. Charles-Albert Lehalle & Othmane Mounjid, 2016. "Limit Order Strategic Placement with Adverse Selection Risk and the Role of Latency," Papers 1610.00261, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    21. Eyal Neuman & Moritz Vo{ss}, 2020. "Optimal Signal-Adaptive Trading with Temporary and Transient Price Impact," Papers 2002.09549, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    22. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2018. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Papers 1805.06682, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    23. Alessandro Micheli & Johannes Muhle-Karbe & Eyal Neuman, 2021. "Closed-Loop Nash Competition for Liquidity," Papers 2112.02961, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    24. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2020. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Post-Print hal-01799398, HAL.

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