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Computation of ruin probabilities for general discrete-time Markov models

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  • Ilya Tkachev
  • Alessandro Abate

Abstract

We study the ruin problem over a risk process described by a discrete-time Markov model. In contrast to previous studies that focused on the asymptotic behaviour of ruin probabilities for large values of the initial capital, we provide a new technique to compute the quantity of interest for any initial value, and with any given precision. Rather than focusing on a particular model for risk processes, we give a general characterization of the ruin probability by providing corresponding recursions and fixpoint equations. Since such equations for the ruin probability are ill-posed in the sense that they do not allow for unique solutions, we approximate the ruin probability by a two-barrier ruin probability, for which fixpoint equations are well-posed. We also show how good the introduced approximation is by providing an explicit bound on the error and by characterizing the cases when the error converges to zero. The presented technique and results are supported by two computational examples over models known in the literature, one of which is extremely heavy-tailed.

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  • Ilya Tkachev & Alessandro Abate, 2013. "Computation of ruin probabilities for general discrete-time Markov models," Papers 1308.5152, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1308.5152
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wei, Xiao & Hu, Yijun, 2008. "Ruin probabilities for discrete time risk models with stochastic rates of interest," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(6), pages 707-715, April.
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    3. Korshunov, D., 1997. "On distribution tail of the maximum of a random walk," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 97-103, December.
    4. Hailiang Yang & Lihong Zhang, 2006. "Ruin problems for a discrete time risk model with random interest rate," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 63(2), pages 287-299, May.
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