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Aftershock prediction for high-frequency financial markets' dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Fulvio Baldovin
  • Francesco Camana
  • Michele Caraglio
  • Attilio L. Stella
  • Marco Zamparo

Abstract

The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been shown to be common to most financial assets, both at high and low frequency. Its present-day description relies on an empirical characterization proposed by Omori at the end of 1800 for seismic earthquakes. We point out the limited predictive power in this phenomenological approach and present a stochastic model, based on the scaling symmetry of financial assets, which is potentially capable to predict aftershocks occurrence, given the main shock magnitude. Comparisons with S&P high-frequency data confirm this predictive potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Fulvio Baldovin & Francesco Camana & Michele Caraglio & Attilio L. Stella & Marco Zamparo, 2012. "Aftershock prediction for high-frequency financial markets' dynamics," Papers 1203.5893, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1203.5893
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Baldovin & F. Camana & M. Caporin & M. Caraglio & A.L. Stella, 2015. "Ensemble properties of high-frequency data and intraday trading rules," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 231-245, February.
    2. Frédéric Abergel & Anirban Chakraborti & B.K. Chakrabarti & M. Mitra, 2011. "Econophysics of order-driven markets," Post-Print hal-00872396, HAL.
    3. Damien Challet & Pier Paolo Peirano, 2008. "The Ups and Downs of Modeling Financial Time Series with Wiener Process Mixtures," Papers 0807.4163, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2009.
    4. Challet, Damien & Peirano, Pier Paolo, 2008. "The ups and downs of the renormalization group applied to financial time series," MPRA Paper 9770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gresnigt, Francine & Kole, Erik & Franses, Philip Hans, 2015. "Interpreting financial market crashes as earthquakes: A new Early Warning System for medium term crashes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 123-139.

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