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Mesoscopic approach to minority games in herd regime

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  • Karol Wawrzyniak
  • Wojciech Wislicki

Abstract

We study minority games in efficient regime. By incorporating the utility function and aggregating agents with similar strategies we develop an effective mesoscale notion of state of the game. Using this approach, the game can be represented as a Markov process with substantially reduced number of states with explicitly computable probabilities. For any payoff, the finiteness of the number of states is proved. Interesting features of an extensive random variable, called aggregated demand, viz. its strong inhomogeneity and presence of patterns in time, can be easily interpreted. Using Markov theory and quenched disorder approach, we can explain important macroscopic characteristics of the game: behavior of variance per capita and predictability of the aggregated demand. We prove that in case of linear payoff many attractors in the state space are possible.

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  • Karol Wawrzyniak & Wojciech Wislicki, 2011. "Mesoscopic approach to minority games in herd regime," Papers 1112.0210, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1112.0210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Challet, Damien, 2008. "Inter-pattern speculation: Beyond minority, majority and $-games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 85-100, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karol Wawrzyniak & Wojciech Wi'slicki, 2013. "Grand canonical minority game as a sign predictor," Papers 1309.3399, arXiv.org.

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