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Credit contagion and risk management with multiple non-ordered defaults

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  • Younes Kchia
  • Martin Larsson

Abstract

The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are derived, revealing how information driven default contagion arises in these models. We then analyze the impact of ordering the default times before expanding the filtration. While not important for pricing, the effect is significant in the context of risk management, and becomes even more pronounced for highly correlated and asymmetrically distributed defaults. Finally, we provide a general scheme for constructing and simulating the default times, given that a model for the conditional densities has been chosen.

Suggested Citation

  • Younes Kchia & Martin Larsson, 2011. "Credit contagion and risk management with multiple non-ordered defaults," Papers 1104.5272, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1104.5272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Umut Çetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Modeling Credit Risk With Partial Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 23, pages 579-590, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Xin Guo & Yan Zeng, 2008. "Intensity process and compensator: A new filtration expansion approach and the Jeulin--Yor theorem," Papers 0801.3191, arXiv.org.
    3. Jeanblanc, Monique & Le Cam, Yann, 2009. "Progressive enlargement of filtrations with initial times," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(8), pages 2523-2543, August.
    4. R. J. Elliott & M. Jeanblanc & M. Yor, 2000. "On Models of Default Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 179-195, April.
    5. Giesecke, Kay, 2004. "Correlated default with incomplete information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1521-1545, July.
    6. Damir FILIPOVIC & Lane P. HUGHSTON & Andrea MACRINA, 2010. "Conditional Density Models for Asset Pricing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-44, Swiss Finance Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tingqiang Chen & Xindan Li & Jining Wang, 2015. "Spatial Interaction Model of Credit Risk Contagion in the CRT Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 519-537, December.

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