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Contagion effect on bond portfolio risk measures in a hybrid credit risk model

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  • Boudreault, Mathieu
  • Gauthier, Geneviève
  • Thomassin, Tommy

Abstract

This paper illustrates how modelling the contagion effect among assets of a given bond portfolio changes the risk perception associated to it. This empirical work is developed in a hybrid credit risk framework that incorporates recovery rate risk. Dependence structures among firms and between external shocks affecting firms together are considered. The presence of correlations among firm leverage ratios and the interrelation between default probabilities and recovery rates produces clusters of defaults with low recovery rates. This has a major impact on standard risk measures such as Value-at-Risk and conditional tail expectation. Consequently, an appropriate measurement of the contagion has a tremendous effect on the capital requirement of many financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Boudreault, Mathieu & Gauthier, Geneviève & Thomassin, Tommy, 2014. "Contagion effect on bond portfolio risk measures in a hybrid credit risk model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 131-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:2:p:131-139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2013.07.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Umut Çetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Modeling Credit Risk With Partial Information," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 23, pages 579-590, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:2:p:183-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    4. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    5. Madan, Dilip & Unal, Haluk, 2000. "A Two-Factor Hazard Rate Model for Pricing Risky Debt and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 43-65, March.
    6. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip Madan & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2006. "Investigating the Role of Systematic and Firm-Specific Factors in Default Risk: Lessons from Empirically Evaluating Credit Risk Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1955-1988, July.
    7. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Giesecke, Kay, 2004. "Correlated default with incomplete information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1521-1545, July.
    9. Jean-Paul Laurent & Jon Gregory, 2005. "Basket default swaps, CDOs and factor copulas," Post-Print hal-03679517, HAL.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barbagli, Matteo & François, Pascal & Gauthier, Geneviève & Vrins, Frédéric, 2024. "The role of CDS spreads in explaining bond recovery rates," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2024002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    2. Shi, Baofeng & Zhao, Xue & Wu, Bi & Dong, Yizhe, 2019. "Credit rating and microfinance lending decisions based on loss given default (LGD)," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 124-129.
    3. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Tebogo Maake, 2021. "The Relationship between Carry Trade and Asset Markets in South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, July.
    4. Cho, Yongbok & Lee, Yongwoong, 2022. "Asymmetric asset correlation in credit portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Gechun Liang & Xingchun Wang, 2021. "Pricing vulnerable options in a hybrid credit risk model driven by Heston–Nandi GARCH processes," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-30, April.
    6. Boudreault, Mathieu & Gauthier, Geneviève & Thomassin, Tommy, 2015. "Estimation of correlations in portfolio credit risk models based on noisy security prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 334-349.
    7. Liu, Chih-Liang & Yang, Hsin-Feng, 2017. "Systemic risk in carry-trade portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 40-46.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Recovery risk; Contagion; Bond portfolio; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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