IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/apc/wpaper/2017-091.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling and forecasting money demand: divide and conquer

Author

Listed:
  • César Carrera

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Jairo Flores

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

The literature on money demand suggests several specification forms of empirical functions that better describe observed data on money in circulation. In a first stage, we select the best long-run model specification for a money demand function at the aggregate level based on forecast performance. On a second stage we divide the money in circulation by denomination and argue that determinants of a low-level denomination is different than those of a high-level. We then estimate the best model specification for each denomination and aggregate each forecast in order to have an aggregate proyection. We finally compare forecasts between these strategies. Our results indicate that the bottom-up approach has a better performance than the traditional view of directly forecasting the aggregate.

Suggested Citation

  • César Carrera & Jairo Flores, 2017. "Modelling and forecasting money demand: divide and conquer," Working Papers 91, Peruvian Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:2017-091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://perueconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/WP-91.pdf
    File Function: Application/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    4. Kumar, Saten & Webber, Don J. & Fargher, Scott, 2013. "Money demand stability: A case study of Nigeria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 978-991.
    5. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    6. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 50, Peruvian Economic Association.
    7. César Carrera, 2016. "Long-run Money Demand in Latin American Countries: A Nonstationary Panel Data Approach," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 121-152, January-j.
    8. Darrat, Ali F. & Al-Sowaidi, Saif S., 2009. "Financial progress and the stability of long-run money demand: Implications for the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 124-131, August.
    9. Palley, Thomas I., 1995. "The demand for money and non-GDP transactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 145-154, May.
    10. Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2015. "On the stability of money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 48-65.
    11. Kumar, Saten & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2012. "Error-correction based panel estimates of the demand for money of selected Asian countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1181-1188.
    12. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    13. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, April.
    14. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Is euro area money demand for M3 still stable?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-39.
    15. Howells, Peter & Hussein, Khaled, 1997. "The demand for money: Total transactions as the scale variable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 371-377, September.
    16. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    17. Carrera Cesar, 2012. "Estimating Information Rigidity Using Firms' Survey Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, June.
    18. Badi H. Baltagi (ed.), 2002. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Panel Data," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 2701.
    19. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miller, Stephen M. & Martins, Luis Filipe & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A Time-Varying Approach Of The Us Welfare Cost Of Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 775-797, March.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-474 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & Pepin, Dominique, 2018. "Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 841-879.
    4. Mouyad Alsamara & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Asymmetric impacts of foreign exchange rate on the demand for money in Turkey: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 335-356, April.
    5. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 013, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin, 2018. "Money demand stability, monetary overhang and inflation forecast in the CEE countries," Working Papers hal-01720319, HAL.
    7. Jung, Alexander & Carcel Villanova, Hector, 2020. "The empirical properties of euro area M3, 1980-2017," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 37-49.
    8. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    9. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    10. César Carrera, 2016. "Long-run Money Demand in Latin American Countries: A Nonstationary Panel Data Approach," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 121-152, January-j.
    11. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2023. "The dynamics of the house price‐to‐income ratio: Theory and evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 61-78, January.
    12. Tsuruga, Takayuki & Wake, Shota, 2019. "Money-financed fiscal stimulus: The effects of implementation lag," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 132-151.
    13. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Padhan, Hemachandra & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Understanding the time-frequency dynamics of money demand, oil prices and macroeconomic variables: The case of India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Felix S. Nyumuah, 2017. "An Investigation into the Interest Elasticity of Demand for Money in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 69-80, March.
    15. Jorge José Luis Reynoso-González. & Adrián De León Arias., 2021. "Crecimiento económico y gasto público en salud según población objetivo en México. (Economic Growth and Public Spending on Health According to Target Population in Mexico)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 89-114, May.
    16. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres & Carlos Esteban Posada & Hermilson Velásquez, 2020. "Demanda de dinero en América Latina, 1996-2016: una aplicación de cointegración en datos de panel," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 85(6), June.
    17. Singh, Sunny Kumar, 2016. "Currency demand stability in the presence of seasonality and endogenous financial innovation: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 71552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Wang, Ling, 2022. "The dynamics of money supply determination under asset purchase programs: A market-based versus a bank-based financial system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Agya Atabani Adi & Joshua Sunday Riti, 2017. "Determination of Long and Short Run Demand for Money in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) Countries: A Panel Analysis," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 2(2), pages 79-97, December.
    20. Ufuk CAN & Zeynep Gizem CAN & Süleyman DEĞİRMEN, 2019. "Paranın Dolaşım Hızının ve Para Talebi Fonksiyonunun Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(2), pages 218-247, November.
    21. Helmut Herwartz & Jordi Sardà & Bernd Theilen, 2016. "Money demand and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1627-1645, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money demand; bottom-up; co-integration; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:2017-091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nelson Ramírez-Rondán (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/peruvea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.