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A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Callum Jones

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Mariano Kulish

    (School of Economics, University of Sydney)

  • James Morley

    (School of Economics, University of Sydney)

Abstract

We propose a shadow policy interest rate based on an estimated structural model that accounts for the zero lower bound. The lower bound constraint, if expected to bind, is contractionary and increases the shadow rate compared to an unconstrained systematic policy response. By contrast, forward guidance and other unconventional policies that extend the expected duration of zero-interest-rate policy are expansionary and decrease the shadow rate. By quantifying these distinct effects, our structural shadow federal funds rate better captures the stance of monetary policy given economic conditions than a shadow rate based only on the term structure of interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & James Morley, 2022. "A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate," Working Papers 170, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:aoz:wpaper:170
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    File URL: https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/170.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    zero lower bound; forward guidance; shadow rate; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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