IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/anc/wpaper/254.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Long-Run Impact of ICT

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco VENTURINI

    (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia)

Abstract

Using some new techniques of panel cointegration analysis, this paper describes the long-run impact of digital capital on the aggregate performance of the US and EU-15 member countries. ICT is found to significantly impact on output levels without substantial cross-country variation when one adopts the dynamic extension of panel OLS (PDOLS). In this case, however, the long-run elasticity of factor inputs does not differ from the one estimated in the short-run. The time-series version of seemingly unrelated regression (DSUR) provides more plausible findings, showing a significant cross-countries heterogeneity. The effect of ICT on growth appears relevant - and higher than emerging from short-differences - for most economies but not for the EU largest countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco VENTURINI, 2006. "The Long-Run Impact of ICT," Working Papers 254, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    • Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:254
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://docs.dises.univpm.it/web/quaderni/pdf/254.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2006
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Karl Aiginger & Martin Falk, 2005. "Explaining Differences in Economic Growth among OECD Countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 19-43, March.
    3. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
    4. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.
    5. Dominique Guellec & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 2004. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do the Institutional Settings and the Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 353-378, July.
    6. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "Data Dependent Rules For Selection Of The Number Of Leads And Lags In The Dynamic Ols Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1425-1441, October.
    7. Roghieh Gholami & Sang-Yong Lee & Almas Heshmati, 2005. "The Causal Relationship between ICT and FDI," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-26, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 9-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Leonardo Becchetti & Fabrizio Adriani, 2005. "Does the digital divide matter? The role of information and communication technology in cross-country level and growth estimates," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 435-453.
    10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Haacker, Markus, 2002. "It's Not What You Make, It's How You Use IT: Measuring the Welfare Benefits of the IT Revolution Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    12. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    14. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman, 2001. "Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: The Case of Computers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 328-335, May.
    15. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?," NBER Working Papers 10010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dale W. Jorgenson & Khuong Vu, 2005. "Information Technology and the World Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(4), pages 631-650, December.
    17. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2003. "Lessons from the US growth resurgence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 453-470, July.
    18. Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil & Snaith, Stuart, 2005. "The PPP debate: Price matters!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 209-213, August.
    19. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
    20. repec:dgr:rugggd:200578 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 5(1), pages 3-34.
    22. repec:dgr:rugggd:200256 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Jalava Jukka & Pohjola Matti & Ripatti Antti & Vilmunen Jouko, 2006. "Biased Technical Change and Capital-Labour Substitution in Finland, 1902-2003," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, April.
    24. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    25. Focco Vijselaar & Ronald Albers, 2004. "New technologies and productivity growth in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 621-646, September.
    26. Francesco Daveri & Andrea Mascotto, 2006. "The It Revolution Across The United States," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 52(4), pages 569-602, December.
    27. Sang-Yong Tom Lee & Xiao Jia Guo, 2004. "Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and Spillover: A Panel Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 722, Econometric Society.
    28. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2002. "Growth, Technological Change, and ICT Diffusion: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 324-344.
    29. Edward N. Wolff, 2002. "Productivity, computerization, and skill change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 87(Q3), pages 63-87.
    30. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2003. "Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 793-808, November.
    31. Patrick Sevestre & Laszlo Matyas, 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00279977, HAL.
    32. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    33. Robert H. McGuckin, 2002. "Computers and Productivity: are Aggregation Effects Important?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 42-59, January.
    34. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
    35. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    36. Francesco Daveri & Olmo Silva, 2004. "Not only Nokia: what Finland tells us about new economy growth [‘The role of Nokia in the Finnish economy’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 19(38), pages 118-163.
    37. Ana Rincon-Aznar & Dr Michela Vecchi, 2004. "The dynamic impact of ICT spillovers on companies' productivity performance," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 245, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    38. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    39. Ark, Bart van, 2002. "ICT investments and growth accounts for the European Union," GGDC Research Memorandum 200256, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    40. Mirko Draca & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Productivity and ICT: A Review of the Evidence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0749, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    41. William Nordhaus, 2005. "The Sources of the Productivity Rebound and the Manufacturing Employment Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 11354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December.
    43. Belorgey, Nicolas & Lecat, Remy & Maury, Tristan-Pierre, 2006. "Determinants of productivity per employee: An empirical estimation using panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 153-157, May.
    44. repec:dgr:rugggd:200363 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart van Ark, 2005. "Does information and communication technology drive EU-US productivity growth differentials?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 693-716, October.
    46. Dirk Frantzen, 2000. "R&D, Human Capital and International Technology Spillovers: A Cross‐country Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 57-75, March.
    47. Dutta, Dilip & Otsuka, Kozo, 2004. "Knowledge Spillover from Information and Communication Technology: A Comparative Study of Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan," Working Papers 8, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    48. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41.
    49. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    50. Sanjeev Dewan & Kenneth L. Kraemer, 2000. "Information Technology and Productivity: Evidence from Country-Level Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(4), pages 548-562, April.
    51. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2003. "Lessons for Canada from the U.S. Growth Resurgence," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 6, pages 3-18, Spring.
    52. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    54. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Are ICT Spillovers Driving the New Economy?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(1), pages 33-57, March.
    55. László Mátyás & Patrick Sevestre (ed.), 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75892-1.
    56. Kumbhakar, Subal C. & Wang, Hung-Jen, 2005. "Estimation of growth convergence using a stochastic production frontier approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 300-305, September.
    57. Mary O'Mahony & Michela Vecchi, 2005. "Quantifying the Impact of ICT Capital on Output Growth: A Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 615-633, November.
    58. Oulton, Nicholas & Srinivasan, Sylaja, 2005. "Productivity growth and the role of ICT in the United Kingdom: an industry view, 1970-2000," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19901, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    59. McGuckin, Robert & Ark, Bart van, 2005. "Productivity and participation: an international comparison," GGDC Research Memorandum 200578, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    60. repec:hal:journl:hal-03564722 is not listed on IDEAS
    61. Francesco Daveri & Olmo Silva, "undated". "Not Only Nokia," Working Papers 222, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    62. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long‐run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
    63. Laura Bottazzi & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "The International Dynamics of R&D and Innovation in the Short and in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 11524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    64. Timmer, Marcel P. & Ypma, Gerard & Ark, Bart van der, 2003. "IT in the European Union: driving productivity divergence?," GGDC Research Memorandum 200363, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco VENTURINI, 2008. "Information Technology, Research & Development, or Both? What Really Drives A Nation's Productivity," Working Papers 321, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Venturini, Francesco, 2015. "The modern drivers of productivity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 357-369.
    3. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Americans Do IT Better: US Multinationals and the Productivity Miracle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 167-201, February.
    5. Danny Leung & Yi Zheng, 2012. "What affects MFP in the long-run? Evidence from Canadian industries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 727-738, February.
    6. Mirko Draca & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Productivity and ICT: A Review of the Evidence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0749, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Prasanna Tambe & Lorin M. Hitt, 2014. "Measuring Information Technology Spillovers," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 25(1), pages 53-71, March.
    8. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
    9. Edquist, Harald & Henrekson, Magnus, 2017. "Swedish lessons: How important are ICT and R&D to economic growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Ronald Kumar & Madhukar Singh, 2014. "Role of health expenditure and ICT in a small island economy: a study of Fiji," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2295-2311, July.
    11. Mosahid Khan & Kul B. Luintel & Konstantinos Theodoris, 2010. "How Robust is the R&D – Productivity relationship? Evidence from OECD Countries," WIPO Economic Research Working Papers 01, World Intellectual Property Organization - Economics and Statistics Division, revised Dec 2010.
    12. repec:wip:wpaper:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Dimelis, Sophia P. & Papaioannou, Sotiris K., 2011. "ICT growth effects at the industry level: A comparison between the US and the EU," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 37-50, March.
    14. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Nikeel Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2019. "Exploring the effect of ICT and tourism on economic growth: a study of Israel," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 221-254, August.
    15. Federico Biagi, 2013. "ICT and Productivity: A Review of the Literature," JRC Working Papers on Digital Economy 2013-09, Joint Research Centre.
    16. Vu, Khuong M., 2013. "Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Singapore’s economic growth," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 284-300.
    17. Ana Rincon & Michela VECCHI & Francesco VENTURINI, 2012. "ICT spillovers, absorptive capacity and productivity performance," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 103/2012, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    18. Meijers, Huub, 2007. "ICT Externalities: Evidence from cross country data," MERIT Working Papers 2007-021, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. Ronald Kumar, 2014. "Exploring the role of technology, tourism and financial development: an empirical study of Vietnam," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2881-2898, September.
    20. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    21. Lach, Saul & Trajtenberg, Manuel & Shiff, Gil, 2008. "Together but Apart: ICT and Productivity Growth in Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 6732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ICT; economic growth; panel cointegration analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maurizio Mariotti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deancit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.