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Bank capital and the European recovery from the COVID-19 crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Moritz Schularick

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Macrofinance Lab Bonn and ECONtribute Excellence Cluster)

  • Sascha Steffen

    (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Center for Financial Intermediaries and the Real Economy (FIRE))

  • Tobias H. Tröger

    (Goethe University Frankfurt and Leibniz Institute for Financial Research Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (LIF SAFE))

Abstract

Do current levels of bank capital in Europe suffice to support a swift recovery from the COVID-19 crisis? Recent research shows that a well-capitalized banking sector is a major factor driving the speed and breadth of recoveries from economic downturns. In particular, loan supply is negatively affected by low levels of capital. We estimate a capital shortfall in European banks of up to 600 billion euro in a severe scenario, and around 143 billion euro in a moderate scenario. We propose a precautionary recapitalization on the European level that puts the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) center stage. This proposal would cut through the sovereign-bank nexus, safeguard financial stability, and position the Eurozone for a quick recovery from the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Moritz Schularick & Sascha Steffen & Tobias H. Tröger, 2020. "Bank capital and the European recovery from the COVID-19 crisis," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 017, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Philippon & Philipp Schnabl, 2013. "Efficient Recapitalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 1-42, February.
    2. Tobias H Tröger, 2018. "Too Complex to Work: A Critical Assessment of the Bail-in Tool under the European Bank Recovery and Resolution Regime," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 35-72.
    3. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    4. Viral V Acharya & Lea Borchert & Maximilian Jager & Sascha Steffen, 2021. "Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4090-4131.
    5. Tobias Berg & Anthony Saunders & Sascha Steffen & Daniel Streitz, 2017. "Mind the Gap: The Difference between U.S. and European Loan Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 948-987.
    6. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 2020. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    7. Viral V Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 0. "The Risk of Being a Fallen Angel and the Corporate Dash for Cash in the Midst of COVID," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 430-471.
    8. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2014. "Falling short of expectations? Stress-testing the European banking system," CEPS Papers 8803, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    9. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Demary & Michael Hüther, 2020. "Corona-Pandemie und die Stabilität des Bankensystems [The Corona Pandemic and the Stability of the Banking System: The Solution is in the Real Economy]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(11), pages 862-868, November.
    2. Özlem Dursun-de Neef, H. & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2021. "COVID-19 and lending responses of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Christoph Bertsch & Mike Mariathasan, 2021. "Optimal bank leverage and recapitalization in crowded markets," BIS Working Papers 923, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Huertas, Thomas F., 2020. "Plug the gap: Make resolution ready for corona," SAFE White Paper Series 73, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Iustina Alina Boitan & Kamilla Marchewka-Bartkowiak, 2021. "The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak—Evidence from EU Member States," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Financial regulation and bank supervision during a pandemic," MPRA Paper 105887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Boot, Arnoud W. A. & Carletti, Elena & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2021. "Corona and banking: A financial crisis in slow motion? An evaluation of the policy options," SAFE White Paper Series 79, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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