IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aiu/abewps/18.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asian Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Abullah M. Noman

    (, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB))

  • Minhaz U. Ahmed

    (Southeast University, Bangladesh)

Abstract

This paper examines the weak form efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in seven SAARC countries using monthly return series for each of these markets over a period of 21 years (1985-2005). We applied a battery of unit root tests and variance ratio tests (individual and multiple) to see whether the return series (and also, the raw data) follow random walk process. Our results suggest that the increments of the return series are not serially correlated. Therefore, we conclude that foreign exchange markets in SAARC countries are weak form efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Abullah M. Noman & Minhaz U. Ahmed, 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asian Countries," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-18, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:aiu:abewps:18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://orp.aiub.edu/FileZone/abewp/orpadmin-2008-188589862658656/AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-18.pdf
    File Function: First version,
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ajayi, Richard A. & Karemera, David, 1996. "A variance ratio test of random walks in exchange rates: Evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 77-91, May.
    2. Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2008. "Random walk and breaking trend in financial series: An econometric critique of unit root tests," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 204-212, August.
    3. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1986. "Robust tests for unit roots in the foreign exchange market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 375-380.
    4. Grieb, Terrance & Reyes, Mario G, 1999. "Random Walk Tests for Latin American Equity Indexes and Individual Firms," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 371-383, Winter.
    5. Ayadi, O. Felix & Pyun, C. S., 1994. "An application of variance ratio test to the Korean securities market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, September.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    7. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 1998. "Foreign exchange market efficiency revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 831-838, October.
    8. Smoluk, Herbert J. & Vasconcellos, Geraldo M. & Kramer, Jonathan K., 1998. "Random walks in the U.K. pound/ U.S. dollar exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-82.
    9. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    10. Oh, Gabjin & Kim, Seunghwan & Eom, Cheoljun, 2007. "Market efficiency in foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 209-212.
    11. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    13. Abraham Abraham & Fazal J. Seyyed & Sulaiman A. Alsakran, 2002. "Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 469-480, August.
    14. Graham Smith & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2003. "Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 290-300.
    15. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. "A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-785, June.
    16. Graham Smith & Keith Jefferis & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2002. "African stock markets: multiple variance ratio tests of random walks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 475-484.
    17. Whang, Yoon-Jae & Kim, Jinho, 2003. "A multiple variance ratio test using subsampling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 225-230, May.
    18. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu & Matthew R. Morey, 1999. "An Empirical Examination Of Financial Liberalization And The Efficiency Of Emerging Market Stock Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 385-411, December.
    19. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    20. Buguk, Cumhur & Wade Brorsen, B., 2003. "Testing weak-form market efficiency: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 579-590.
    21. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    22. Darrat, Ali F & Zhong, Maosen, 2000. "On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 105-124, August.
    23. Lee, Chun I. & Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela, 2001. "On market efficiency of Asian foreign exchange rates: evidence from a joint variance ratio test and technical trading rules," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-214, June.
    24. Aron, Janine & Ayogu, Melvin, 1997. "Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 150-192, Supplemen.
    25. Terrance Grieb & Mario G. Reyes, 1999. "Random Walk Tests For Latin American Equity Indexes And Individual Firms," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 371-383, December.
    26. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    27. Kuo-Ping Chang & Kuo-Shiuan Ting, 2000. "A variance ratio test of the random walk hypothesis for Taiwan's stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 525-532.
    28. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    29. Coleman, Mark, 1990. "Cointegration-based tests of daily foreign exchange market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 53-59, January.
    30. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    31. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-1035, September.
    32. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Bangladesh: A Bayesian Structural VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 301-316, June.
    2. Anoop S. KUMAR & Bandi KAMAIAH, 2016. "Efficiency, non-linearity and chaos: evidences from BRICS foreign exchange markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 103-118, Spring.
    3. repec:pid:wpaper:2012:82 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gofaone Matebejana & Gaotlhobogwe Motlaleng & James Juana, 2017. "Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency In Botswana," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 19, pages 55-74, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    2. Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Everton Dockery, 2021. "Testing for efficiency in the Saudi stock market: does corporate governance change matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 61-90, July.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    4. Amelie Charles & Olivier Darne, 2009. "Testing for Random Walk Behavior in Euro Exchange Rates," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 25-45.
    5. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    6. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    7. Hsien-Yi Lee & Khatanbaatar Sodoikhuu, 2012. "Efficiency Tests in Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 216-224.
    8. Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
    9. Siva Kiran & Prabhakar Rao.R, 2019. "Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(72), pages 60-77, June.
    10. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel, 2009. "Random walk and efficiency tests in the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the post-Asian currency crisis data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.
    11. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta & Suneel Maheshwari, 2011. "Weak-form Market Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-389, December.
    12. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    14. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047, July.
    15. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Schindler, Felix & Rottke, Nico & Füss, Roland, 2009. "Testing the predictability and efficiency of securitized real estate markets," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-054, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Weak-form market efficiency in European emerging and developed stock markets," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 159, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    18. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta, 2011. "Are ASEAN stock market efficient? Evidence from univariate and multivariate variance ratio tests," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201113, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    19. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    20. Buguk, Cumhur & Wade Brorsen, B., 2003. "Testing weak-form market efficiency: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 579-590.
    21. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Opong, Kwaku K., 2005. "Some evidence of random walk behavior of Euro exchange rates using ranks and signs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1631-1643, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aiu:abewps:18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ziarat H. Khan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://orp.aiub.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.