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Catastrophic Risk, Rare Events, and Black Swans: Could There Be a Countably Additive Synthesis?

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  • Hammond, Peter

Abstract

Catastrophic risk, rare events, and black swans are phenomena that require special attention in normative decision theory. Several papers by Chichilnisky integrate them into a single framework with finitely additive subjective probabilities. Some precursors include: (i) following Jones-Lee (1974), undefined willingness to pay to avoid catastrophic risk; (ii) following R´enyi (1955, 1956) and many successors, rare events whose probability is infinitesimal. Also, when rationality is bounded, enlivened decision trees can represent a dynamic process involving successively unforeseen “true black swan” events. One conjectures that a different integrated framework could be developed to include these three phenomena while preserving countably additive probabilities.

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  • Hammond, Peter, 2015. "Catastrophic Risk, Rare Events, and Black Swans: Could There Be a Countably Additive Synthesis?," Economic Research Papers 270223, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:270223
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270223
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    1. Joseph Halpern, 2009. "A nonstandard characterization of sequential equilibrium, perfect equilibrium, and proper equilibrium," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 38(1), pages 37-49, March.
    2. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 2000. "An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 221-231, July.
    3. Halpern, Joseph Y., 2010. "Lexicographic probability, conditional probability, and nonstandard probability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 155-179, January.
    4. Partha Dasgupta & Douglas Gale & Oliver Hart & Eric Maskin (ed.), 1992. "Economic Analysis of Markets and Games: Essays in Honor of Frank Hahn," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262541599, April.
    5. Dekel, Eddie & Lipman, Barton L & Rustichini, Aldo, 2001. "Representing Preferences with a Unique Subjective State Space," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 891-934, July.
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    1. Arbrie Jashari & Victor Tiberius & Marina Dabić, 2022. "Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.

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