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Subjective random discounting and intertemporal choice

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  • Higashi, Youichiro
  • Hyogo, Kazuya
  • Takeoka, Norio

Abstract

This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a particular type of preference shock model called the random discounting representation where a decision maker believes that her discount factors change randomly over time. For this purpose, we formulate an infinite horizon extension of [E. Dekel, B. Lipman, A. Rustichini, Representing preferences with a unique subjective state space, Econometrica 69 (2001) 891-934], and identify the behavior that reduces all subjective uncertainties to those about future discount factors. We also show uniqueness of subjective belief about discount factors. Moreover, a behavioral comparison about preference for flexibility characterizes the condition that one's subjective belief second-order stochastically dominates the other. Finally, the resulting model is applied to a consumption-savings problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Higashi, Youichiro & Hyogo, Kazuya & Takeoka, Norio, 2009. "Subjective random discounting and intertemporal choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1015-1053, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:144:y:2009:i:3:p:1015-1053
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    Cited by:

    1. ,, 2013. "Contingent preference for flexibility: eliciting beliefs from behavior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), May.
    2. Koida, Nobuo, 2022. "Indecisiveness, preference for flexibility, and a unique subjective state space," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. van Buggenum, Hugo, 2023. "Coexistence of money and interest-bearing bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman, 2012. "Costly Self‐Control and Random Self‐Indulgence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1271-1302, May.
    5. Youichiro Higashi & Kazuya Hyogo & Norio Takeoka & Hiroyuki Tanaka, 2017. "Comparative impatience under random discounting," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(3), pages 621-651, March.
    6. Philipp Sadowski, 2011. "Contingent Preference for Flexibility: Eliciting Beliefs from Behavior," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000001189, David K. Levine.
    7. John Stachurski & Junnan Zhang, 2019. "Dynamic Programming with State-Dependent Discounting," Papers 1908.08800, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    8. David Dillenberger & Philipp Sadowski, 2011. "Models of Subjective Learning," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-042, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    9. Camargo, Braz & Lester, Benjamin, 2014. "Trading dynamics in decentralized markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 534-568.
    10. Dionne, Georges & Gauthier, Geneviève & Hammami, Khemais & Maurice, Mathieu & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2011. "A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1984-2000, August.
    11. David Dillenberger & Juan Sebastian Lleras & Philipp Sadowski & Norio Takeoka, 2012. "A Theory of Subjective Learning," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000583, David K. Levine.
    12. Daniele Pennesi, 2017. "Uncertain discount and hyperbolic preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 315-336, October.
    13. Dillenberger, David & Krishna, R. Vijay & Sadowski, Philipp, 2023. "Subjective information choice processes," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), May.
    14. Dillenberger, David & Lleras, Juan Sebastián & Sadowski, Philipp & Takeoka, Norio, 2014. "A theory of subjective learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 287-312.
    15. Higashi, Youichiro & Hyogo, Kazuya & Takeoka, Norio, 2014. "Stochastic endogenous time preference," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-92.
    16. Youichiro Higashi & Kazuya Hyogo & Gil Riella, 2020. "Dynamically Consistent Menu Preferences," KIER Working Papers 1047, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    17. van Buggenum, Hugo, 2021. "Coexistence of Money and Interest-Bearing Bonds," Other publications TiSEM 0bd7c6fc-3779-4bf3-9100-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Lu, Jay & Saito, Kota, 2018. "Random intertemporal choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 780-815.
    19. David Dillenberger & Philipp Sadowski, 2011. "Subjective Learning, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 07 Mar 2012.
    20. David Dillenberger & Philipp Sadowski & Juan Sebastian Lleras & Norio Takeoka, 2012. "A Theory of Subjective Learning," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    21. Tang, Rui & Zhang, Mu, 2023. "Motivated naivete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).

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