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A Quarterly Model of U.S. Dairy Sector and Some of Its Policy Implications

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  • Westcott, Paul C.

Abstract

A quarterly econometric model of the U.S. dairy sector has been developed for use in short-to medium-term outlook and policy analyses. Simulations of the model indicate that it performs quite well both during the estimation period and during an eight-quarter interval beyond the estimation period. The model is used to estimate the effects of the recent 15-month paid diversion program and to examine some implications of three price support policy alternatives. Dynamic system multipliers are derived for personal disposable income, feed prices, cattle prices, and milk prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Westcott, Paul C., 1986. "A Quarterly Model of U.S. Dairy Sector and Some of Its Policy Implications," Technical Bulletins 157018, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerstb:157018
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.157018
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/157018/files/tb1717.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Westcott, Paul C. & Hull, David B., 1985. "A Quarterly Forecasting Model for U.S. Agriculture," Technical Bulletins 156815, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mosheim, Roberto, 2012. "A Quarterly Econometric Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the U.S. Dairy Industry," Technical Bulletins 184305, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Chang, Ching-Cheng & Stefanou, Spiro E., 1987. "Supply Growth And Dairy Industry Deregulation," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, April.
    3. Helming, John F.M. & Hammond, Jerome W., 1991. "Potential Impacts Of Bst On The Minnesota Milk Supply," Staff Papers 14119, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.

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