IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerssr/278232.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quarterly Forecasting of Meat Retail Prices: A Vector Autoregression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Elitzak, Howard
  • Blisard, W. Noel

Abstract

6ector autore ression models are used to forecast five meat and fish Consumer Price Indexes.J A price markup model is employed as the underlying model specification. Two different approaches are used to estimate the models. The ability of each model to produce reliable forecasts was tested by means of three forecast simulations. Theil's U2 coefficient, root mean square errors, and turning point accuracy are used to evaluate the forecasting results. The analysis suggests that the estimated equations are useful for forecasts made one quarter into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Elitzak, Howard & Blisard, W. Noel, 1989. "Quarterly Forecasting of Meat Retail Prices: A Vector Autoregression Approach," Staff Reports 278232, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278232
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278232/files/ers-report-406.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.278232?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael S. Kaylen, 1988. "Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Recent Developments Applied to the U.S. Hog Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 701-712.
    2. Fackler, James S & Krieger, Sandra C, 1986. "An Application of Vector Time Series Techniques to Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 71-80, January.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
    5. Harp, Harry H., 1980. "The Food Marketing Cost Index: A New Measure for Analyzing Food Price Changes," Technical Bulletins 157677, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Farooq, Abdul, 2013. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 87-94.
    2. Kim, Jae H., 1999. "Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 393-403, October.
    3. Zhang, Wei & Yang, Shuyun, 2013. "The influence of energy consumption of China on its real GDP from aggregated and disaggregated viewpoints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 76-81.
    4. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Interest rate differentials and exchange rate policies in Austria, The Netherlands, and Belgium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 363-386, May.
    5. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, April.
    6. Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen, 2001. "Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1045-1056.
    7. W. Jos Jansen, 1998. "The mean-variance model with capital controls and expectations formation. A test on German portfolio data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 333-346.
    8. Olugbenga Onafowora, 1996. "Inflation in developing countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(12), pages 809-814.
    9. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    10. Cummins, Mark & Garry, Oonagh & Kearney, Claire, 2014. "Price discovery analysis of green equity indices using robust asymmetric vector autoregression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 261-267.
    11. George, Edward I. & Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2008. "Bayesian stochastic search for VAR model restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 553-580, January.
    12. Obalade Adefemi Alamu & Ebiwonjumi Ayooluwade & Adaramola Anthony Olugbenga, 2019. "Var Modelling of Dynamics of Poverty, Unemployment, Literacy and Per Capita Income in Nigeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 73-88, June.
    13. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
    14. Samarjit Das, 2003. "Modelling money, price and output in India: a vector autoregressive and moving average (VARMA) approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(10), pages 1219-1225.
    15. Andreas A. Andrikopoulos & Kyprianos P. Prodromidis & Efthimios G. Tsionas, 1990. "Modelling Intra-urban Location Preferences under Rational Expectations," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 27(5), pages 739-751, October.
    16. Erenburg, S. J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1995. "Public and private investment: Are there causal linkages?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-30.
    17. Albis, Manuel Leonard F. & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014. "Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates in Asymmetric Vector Autoregressive (AVAR) Models," MPRA Paper 55902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sturm, Jan-egbert & Jacobs, Jan & Groote, Peter, 1999. "Output Effects of Infrastructure Investment in the Netherlands, 1853-1913," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 355-380, April.
    19. UÄŸur Korkut Pata & Harun Terzi, 2016. "Testing for Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality between FDI and Foreign Trade in Turkey," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(62), pages 95-118, December.
    20. Jia-Jan Lee, 2019. "The Study on the Correlation between Wholesale Price and Trading Volume in Taiwan Milkfish Market," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 73-81, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.