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Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Recent Developments Applied to the U.S. Hog Market

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  • Michael S. Kaylen

Abstract

Bayesian estimation and the exclusion of variables are two basic approaches to the improvement of vector autoregression forecasting models. This study presents a method which combines and extends several techniques within the exclusion-of-variables approach. Several quarterly hog market models are estimated and out-of-sample forecasts from 1977 through 1984 are evaluated. The results suggest the proposed method compares favorably to other exclusion-of-variables techniques as well as to the more sophisticated bayesian approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Kaylen, 1988. "Vector Autoregression Forecasting Models: Recent Developments Applied to the U.S. Hog Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 701-712.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:70:y:1988:i:3:p:701-712.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elitzak, Howard & Blisard, W. Noel, 1989. "Quarterly Forecasting of Meat Retail Prices: A Vector Autoregression Approach," Staff Reports 278232, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. P. Geoffrey Allen & Robert Fildes, 2005. "Levels, Differences and ECMs – Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 881-904, December.
    3. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Short-run price forecast performance of individual and composite models for 496 corn cash markets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(14), pages 2593-2620, October.
    6. Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Lai, Yue, 1997. "Cointegration Between Prices of Pecans and Other Edible Nuts: Forecasting and Implications," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35870, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Obalade Adefemi Alamu & Ebiwonjumi Ayooluwade & Adaramola Anthony Olugbenga, 2019. "Var Modelling of Dynamics of Poverty, Unemployment, Literacy and Per Capita Income in Nigeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 73-88, June.
    8. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.
    9. Mingyu Xu & Xin Lai & Yuying Zhang & Zongjun Li & Bohan Ouyang & Jingmiao Shen & Shiming Deng, 2024. "An Integrated Hog Supply Forecasting Framework Incorporating the Time-Lagged Piglet Feature: Sustainable Insights from the Hog Industry in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-24, September.

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