IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerssr/278051.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Farmland Prices: An Example Of Economic Forecasts, Uses, And Limitations

Author

Listed:
  • Gertel, Karl

Abstract

Presenting general trends is a more accurate way to convey forecast information to users than the traditional model-generated year-to-year (point) predictions. This report describes the benefits of forecasting procedures that combine results of formal econometric models with judgmentbased predictions. Farmland prices are used as an example.

Suggested Citation

  • Gertel, Karl, 1988. "Farmland Prices: An Example Of Economic Forecasts, Uses, And Limitations," Staff Reports 278051, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278051
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278051/files/ers-report-360.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.278051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dallas S. Batten & Michael T. Belongia, 1984. "The recent decline in agricultural exports: is the exchange rate the culprit?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 66(Oct), pages 5-14.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Commodity Prices and Money: Lessons from International Finance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(5), pages 560-566.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Portfolio Choice, and Prices of Land and Corporate Stock," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 229-242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Vantreese, Valerie L. & Reed, Michael R. & Skees, Jerry R., 1986. "The Mystery Of Inflation And Real Farmland Values," Staff Papers 140086, University of Kentucky, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    5. Reinsel, Robert & Reinsel, Edward, 1979. "The Economics of Asset Values and Current Income in Farming," 1979 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, Pullman, Washington 278182, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Oscar R. Burt, 1986. "Econometric Modeling of the Capitalization Formula for Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 10-26.
    7. Julian M. Alston, 1986. "An Analysis of Growth of U.S. Farmland Prices, 1963–82," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 1-9.
    8. Robert D. Reinsel & Edward I. Reinsel, 1979. "The Economics of Asset Values and Current Income in Farming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 1093-1097.
    9. Peter J. Barry & Lindon J. Robison, 1986. "Economic versus Accounting Rates of Return for Farm Land," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 62(4), pages 388-401.
    10. Somwaru, Agapi, 1986. "Disaggregated Farm Income by Type of Farm, 1959-82," Agricultural Economic Reports 308011, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    11. John T. Scott, 1983. "Factors Affecting Land Price Decline," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(4), pages 796-800.
    12. Emanuel Melichar, 1986. "Agricultural banks under stress," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul, pages 437-448.
    13. Conway, Roger K., 1985. "Examining Intertemporal Export Elasticities for Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans: A Stochastic Coefficients Approach," Technical Bulletins 157006, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    14. Ferris, John N., 1987. "Application Of Crop Enterprise Returns To Predict Farmland Prices In The Corn Belt," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 269973, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dodson, Charles B. & Bullock, J. Bruce, 1991. "An Analysis of the Economic Viability of Farm Credit System Banks and Combined Associations," Miscellaneous Reports 257767, University of Missouri Columbia, Department of Agricultural Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mishra, Ashok K. & Moss, Charles B. & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2004. "Effect Of Debt Solvency On Farmland Values: A Panel Cointegration Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20261, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    3. Flowers, Gwendolyn G., 1983. "An economic analysis of the relation of farm land values and returns," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009469, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, September.
    5. Hennings, Enrique & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Barry, Peter J., 2005. "Portfolio Diversification Using Farmland Investments," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19273, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd & Zhang, Wendong, 2023. "Information Rigidities and Farmland Value Expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 202306131414240000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Brian C. Briggeman & Michael A. Gunderson & Brent A. Gloy, 2009. "The Financial Health of Agricultural Lenders," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1406-1413.
    8. Sandrey, Ronald A. & Arthur, Louise M. & Oliveira, Ronald A. & Wilson, W. Robert, 1982. "Determinants Of Oregon Farmland Values: A Pooled Cross-Sectional, Time Series Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Li, Xin, 2016. "The Farmland Valuation Revisited," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Élodie Letort & Chalachew Temesgen, 2014. "Influence of environmental policies on farmland prices in the Bretagne region of France," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 95(1), pages 77-109.
    11. Taylor, Mykel R. & Sudbeck, Lucas & Wilson, Christine & Yu, Jisang, 2020. "Quality Effects on Kansas Land Price Trends," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2020.
    12. Liu, Zong-Shin, 1989. "Monetary policy, exchange rate, and effects on US wheat trade and domestic market in an imperfect competition framework," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010216, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Fiske, John Robery, 1983. "The impact of financial constraints on the local price of farm land," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800008710, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Sanchirico, James & Newell, Richard & Papps, Kerry, 2005. "Asset Pricing in Created Markets for Fishing Quotas," RFF Working Paper Series dp-05-46, Resources for the Future.
    15. Benavidez, Justin & Hardin, Erin M., 2017. "Forecasting Cash Rent Values," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252771, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Binswanger, Hans P. & Deininger, Klaus & Feder, Gershon, 1995. "Power, distortions, revolt and reform in agricultural land relations," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 42, pages 2659-2772, Elsevier.
    17. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Shumway, C. Richard, 1982. "A Pooled Time-Series Cross-Section Analysis Of Land Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, July.
    18. Awad, Taleb Mohammad, 1987. "International monetary and exchange rate policies and world agricultural markets: the case of soybeans and soybean products," ISU General Staff Papers 198701010800009611, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Just, Richard E. & Miranowski, John A., 1988. "US Land Prices: Trends and Determinants," 1988 Conference, August 24-31, 1988, Buenos Aires, Argentina 183169, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Henning Schaak & Oliver Musshoff, 2022. "The distribution of the rent–price relationship of agricultural land in Germany," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(3), pages 696-718.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Land Economics/Use;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.