IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uersrr/7184.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Valuing Counter-Cyclical Payments: Implications For Producer Risk Management And Program Administration

Author

Listed:
  • Plato, Gerald E.
  • Skully, David W.
  • Johnsons, D. Demcey

Abstract

USDA’s current method for estimating expected counter-cyclical payment rates produces unintentionally biased estimates because it does not consider the variability of marketing year prices. Estimates with positive bias increase the risk of overpayment to producers who accept advance payments. According to statute, producers must reimburse the Government for any overpayments, which can lead to cash-flow problems. A model developed for this analysis improved upon the USDA method of estimating counter-cyclical payment rates by accounting for the variability in market price forecast errors. This enhanced method produced unbiased estimates. Forecasters and producers can also use the model to calculate the probabilities of repayment. Producers can use call options on commodity futures contracts to hedge against losses in expected counter-cyclical payments. Hedging, however, is only moderately effective and varies by commodity.

Suggested Citation

  • Plato, Gerald E. & Skully, David W. & Johnsons, D. Demcey, 2007. "Valuing Counter-Cyclical Payments: Implications For Producer Risk Management And Program Administration," Economic Research Report 7184, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:7184
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/7184/files/er070039.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.7184?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kemna, A. G. Z. & Vorst, A. C. F., 1990. "A pricing method for options based on average asset values," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 113-129, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asbjørn T. Hansen & Peter Løchte Jørgensen, 2000. "Analytical Valuation of American-Style Asian Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1116-1136, August.
    2. Marcos Escobar-Anel & Matt Davison & Yichen Zhu, 2022. "Derivatives-based portfolio decisions: an expected utility insight," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 217-246, June.
    3. Jean-Yves Datey & Genevieve Gauthier & Jean-Guy Simonato, 2003. "The Performance of Analytical Approximations for the Computation of Asian Quanto-Basket Option Prices," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 7(1-2), pages 55-82, March-Jun.
    4. Ting He, 2020. "Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Asian options," Papers 2008.13082, arXiv.org.
    5. David Ford & Diane Lander & John Voyer, 2002. "A real options approach to valuing strategic flexibility in uncertain construction projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 343-351.
    6. Jin-Chuan Duan & Jean-Guy Simonato, 1998. "Empirical Martingale Simulation for Asset Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(9), pages 1218-1233, September.
    7. Simon, S. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Dhaene, J., 2000. "An easy computable upper bound for the price of an arithmetic Asian option," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 175-183, May.
    8. Dingeç, Kemal Dinçer & Hörmann, Wolfgang, 2012. "A general control variate method for option pricing under Lévy processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 368-377.
    9. Ahmadian, D. & Ballestra, L.V. & Shokrollahi, F., 2022. "A Monte-Carlo approach for pricing arithmetic Asian rainbow options under the mixed fractional Brownian motion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Zhang, Ling & Lai, Yongzeng & Zhang, Shuhua & Li, Lin, 2019. "Efficient control variate methods with applications to exotic options pricing under subordinated Brownian motion models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 602-621.
    11. Gobet, Emmanuel & Miri, Mohammed, 2014. "Weak approximation of averaged diffusion processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 475-504.
    12. Mohamed Amine Kacef & Kamal Boukhetala, 2021. "A closed-form approximation for pricing geometric Istanbul options," Papers 2103.07440, arXiv.org.
    13. Florian Bourgey & Stefano De Marco & Emmanuel Gobet, 2022. "Weak approximations and VIX option price expansions in forward variance curve models," Papers 2202.10413, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    14. Manuel Moreno & Javier F. Navas, 2003. "Australian Asian Options," Working Papers 28, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Kailin Ding & Zhenyu Cui & Xiaoguang Yang, 2023. "Pricing arithmetic Asian and Amerasian options: A diffusion operator integral expansion approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 217-241, February.
    16. Annika Kemper & Maren D. Schmeck & Anna Kh. Balci, 2020. "The Market Price of Risk for Delivery Periods: Pricing Swaps and Options in Electricity Markets," Papers 2002.07561, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    17. Benhamou, Eric & Duguet, Alexandre, 2003. "Small dimension PDE for discrete Asian options," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2095-2114.
    18. Zhaojun Yang & Christian-Oliver Ewald & Olaf Menkens, 2011. "Pricing and hedging of Asian options: quasi-explicit solutions via Malliavin calculus," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 74(1), pages 93-120, August.
    19. Susana Alvarez Diez & Samuel Baixauli & Luis Eduardo Girón, 2019. "Valoración de Opciones Call Asiáticas Promedio Aritmético bajo Movimiento Browniano Logístico," Working Papers 46, Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali.
    20. Lingjiong Zhu, 2015. "Short maturity options for Azéma–Yor martingales," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-32, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:7184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.