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Potential Budgetary Impacts of Climate Change on the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance Plan

Author

Listed:
  • Turner, Dylan
  • Baldwin, Katherine
  • Beckman, Jayson
  • Nava, Noé J.
  • Tsiboe, Francis
  • Vaiknoras, Kate

Abstract

More frequent and severe weather events are projected with climate change. The U.S. Federal Government offers programs to help producers mitigate the financial impacts of these adverse events, the largest of which is the USDA, Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP). The potential impacts on FCIP outlays under future climate scenarios have been explored but most analyses have focused on impacts on field crops. A changing climate could also affect forage commodities and livestock producers. The Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance plan was designed to help producers mitigate financial losses associated with a lack of precipitation. Payments are triggered if precipitation is below a historical index. Payment amounts are determined by the decrease in precipitation, changes in biomass value, and participation in the program. This report provides projected changes to precipitation (using climate estimates), biomass (using a livestock rangeland model), and future participation in the program. Results show that net payments (defined as indemnities, plus premium subsidies, minus total premiums) are projected to range from an annual average of approximately $495 million per year to $2.63 billion per year between 2024 and 2050 compared to the average net payments of $603 million per year (in 2024 terms) observed in 2020–23.

Suggested Citation

  • Turner, Dylan & Baldwin, Katherine & Beckman, Jayson & Nava, Noé J. & Tsiboe, Francis & Vaiknoras, Kate, 2024. "Potential Budgetary Impacts of Climate Change on the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance Plan," Economic Brief 348571, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerseb:348571
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.348571
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