IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ualbpr/232358.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Analysis of Risk and Return in Hog Finishing

Author

Listed:
  • Novak, Frank
  • Bauer, Leonard
  • Dailly, Sally
  • Melvin, Richard

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to measure returns and the variation in returns for hog finishers in Alberta. From this base, different strategies were assessed as to their ability to reduce the level of price risk faced by producers. The National Tripartite Stabilization Program was reviewed along with hedging strategies using the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Live Hogs futures. Risk was measured using the Mean Square Error (MSE) and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) beta. A twelve month rolling average of nearby basis was used to predict hog prices. All of these strategies studied, the NTSP, a selective investment model, a 100% hedge and an optimal hedge, reduced risk compared to the base model. The 100% hedge reduced risk to the greatest extent. The NTSP alone reduced risk and increased returns. When using the Capital Market Line as a means of measuring the risk return tradeoff, all the strategies provided a viable alternative for risk reduction compared to the base model. The CAPM betas for the various strategies were very low. Hog finishing could provide a diversification opportunity for holders of a market portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Novak, Frank & Bauer, Leonard & Dailly, Sally & Melvin, Richard, 1992. "An Analysis of Risk and Return in Hog Finishing," Project Report Series 232358, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ualbpr:232358
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.232358
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/232358/files/ualberta-projectreports-92-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.232358?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marvin L. Hayenga & Dennis D. Dipietre & J. Marvin Skadberg & Ted C. Schroeder, 1984. "Profitable hedging opportunities and risk premiums for producers in live cattle and live hog futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 141-154, June.
    2. Naik, Gopal & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1988. "Cash And Futures Price Relationships For Nonstorable Commodities: An Empirical Analysis Using A General Theory," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Stanley R. Thompson & Gary E. Bond, 1987. "Offshore Commodity Hedging under Floating Exchange Rates," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(1), pages 46-55.
    4. Jon A. Brandt, 1985. "Forecasting and Hedging: An Illustration of Risk Reduction in the Hog Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 24-31.
    5. J. Caldwell & J. Copeland & M. Hawkins, 1982. "Alternative Hedging Strategies for an Alberta Feedlot Operator," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 30(3), pages 257-272, November.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    7. Larry Martin & Philip Garcia, 1981. "The Price-Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 209-215.
    8. Philip Garcia & Raymond M. Leuthold & T. Randall Fortenbery & Gboroton F. Sarassoro, 1988. "Pricing Efficiency in the Live Cattle Futures Market: Further Interpretation and Measurement," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(1), pages 162-169.
    9. C. A. Carter & R. M. A. Loyns, 1985. "Hedging Feedlot Cattle: A Canadian Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 32-39.
    10. Francesco S. Braga, 1990. "On the RElation Betweel Adjusted Basis and Hedge Results," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 38(2), pages 323-331, July.
    11. Tan, M. H., 1988. "The National Tripartite Stabilization Program for Red Meats: Hog Model," Working Papers 244069, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
    12. Gary E. Bond & Stanley R. Thompson & Benny M. S. Lee, 1987. "Application of a simplified hedging rule," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 65-72, February.
    13. Robert A. Collins & Peter J. Barry, 1986. "Risk Analysis with Single-Index Portfolio Models: An Application to Farm Planning," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 152-161.
    14. Raymond M. Leuthold & Peter A. Hartmann, 1979. "A Semi-Strong Form Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Hog Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(3), pages 482-489.
    15. Emmett W. Elam & Daniel Vaught, 1988. "Risk and return in cattle and hog futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 79-87, February.
    16. Hayenga, Marvin L. & DiPietre, Dennis D. & Skadberg, J. Marvin & Schroeder, Ted C., 1984. "Profit Opportunities and Risk Premiums for Producers in Live Cattle and Live Hog Futures Markets," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11307, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
    18. David Kenyon & John Clay, 1987. "Analysis of profit margin hedging strategies for hog producers," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 183-202, April.
    19. Buccola, Steven T., 1989. "Pricing Efficiency In Agricultural Markets: Issues, Methods, And Results," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, July.
    20. David Hirshleifer, 1988. "Residual Risk, Trading Costs, and Commodity Futures Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 173-193.
    21. Bauer, L. & Mumey, G.A. & Coles, H., 1989. "Risk and Return Analysis of Beef Feedlot Investments in Alberta," Project Report Series 232076, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    22. Robert A. Collins, 1985. "Expected Utility, Debt-Equity Structure, and Risk Balancing," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 627-629.
    23. Dwight Grant, 1985. "Theory of the Firm with Joint Price and Output Risk and a Forward Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 630-635.
    24. Calum Greig Turvey & H. C. Driver, 1987. "Systematic and Nonsystematic Risks in Agriculture," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 35(2), pages 387-401, July.
    25. Brian S. Freeze & A. Gene Nelson & Wesley N. Musser & R. Hironaka, 1990. "Feeding and Marketing Portfolio Effects of Cattle Feeding in Alberta," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 38(2), pages 233-252, July.
    26. Anne E. Peck, 1975. "Hedging and Income Stability: Concepts, Implications, and an Example," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 57(3), pages 410-419.
    27. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec..
    28. Tan, M.H., 1988. "The National Tripartite Stabilization Program for Red Meats: Hog Model," Papers 5-88, Gouvernement du Canada - Agriculture Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Unterschultz, James R., 2000. "New Instruments For Co-Ordination And Risk Sharing Within The Canadian Beef Industry," Project Report Series 24046, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    3. Tabesh, Hamid, 1987. "Hedging price risk to soybean producers with futures and options: a case study," ISU General Staff Papers 1987010108000010306, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    5. J. Frank & P. Garcia, 2009. "Time-varying risk premium: further evidence in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 715-725.
    6. Duncan, Steven Scott, 1988. "The relevant forecast of variance of income for marketing decisions under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 198801010800009839, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Shafer, Carl E., 1992. "Hedge Ratios and Basis Behavior: An Intuitive Insight?," Faculty Paper Series 257887, Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    8. Novak, Frank S. & Viney, Bruce, 1995. "Alternative Pricing and Delivery Strategies for Alberta Cattle Feeders," Project Report Series 24044, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    9. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-12, April.
    10. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    11. Karali, Berna & McNew, Kevin & Thurman, Walter N., 2018. "Price Discovery and the Basis Effects of Failures to Converge in Soft RedWinter Wheat Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(1), January.
    12. Carter, Colin A., 1999. "Commodity futures markets: a survey," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(2), pages 1-39, June.
    13. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
    14. Bredin, Don & O'Sullivan, Conall & Spencer, Simon, 2021. "Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Mumey, G.A. & Bauer, L. & Boyda, A., 1988. "An Estimate of Risk and Returns From Cropping Alternatives," Project Report Series 232065, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    16. Gemmill, Gordon, 1985. "Optimal hedging on futures markets for commodity-exporting nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 243-261, March.
    17. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Guillermo Llorente & Jiang Wang, 2020. "Trading and information in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1231-1263, August.
    19. Covey, Ted & Bessler, David A., 1991. "The Role of Futures in Daily Forward Pricing," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Collins, Robert A., 1993. "The Robustness Of Single Index Models In Crop Markets: A Multiple Index Model Test: Comment," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-4, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ualbpr:232358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/drualca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.