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Pricing Efficiency in the Live Cattle Futures Market: Further Interpretation and Measurement

Author

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  • Philip Garcia
  • Raymond M. Leuthold
  • T. Randall Fortenbery
  • Gboroton F. Sarassoro

Abstract

The pricing efficiency of the live cattle futures market is evaluated using out-of-sample forecasts from an econometric model, an ARIMA model, and composite forecasting procedures. In terms of the mean-squared error criterion, a necessary condition for market efficiency, at least one of the models, and frequently more, forecasted more accurately than did the futures market. However, market simulation results based on the most accurate forecasts generated large risk-return ratios. These results do not show strong evidence of inefficiency and call into question the use of only mean-squared errors to examine a market's pricing efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Garcia & Raymond M. Leuthold & T. Randall Fortenbery & Gboroton F. Sarassoro, 1988. "Pricing Efficiency in the Live Cattle Futures Market: Further Interpretation and Measurement," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(1), pages 162-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:70:y:1988:i:1:p:162-169.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew M. McKenzie & Bingrong Jiang & Harjanto Djunaidi & Linwood A. Hoffman & Eric J. Wailes, 2002. "Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 474-493.
    2. Unterschultz, James R., 2000. "New Instruments For Co-Ordination And Risk Sharing Within The Canadian Beef Industry," Project Report Series 24046, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    3. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-12, April.
    4. Elfakhani, Said & Wionzek, Ritchie J., 1997. "Intermarket spread opportunities between Canadian and American agricultural futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 361-377.
    5. Wiseman, J.A. & Darroch, M.A.G. & Ortmann, G.F., 1999. "Testing The Efficiency Of The South African Futures Market For White Maize," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 38(3).
    6. Novak, Frank & Bauer, Leonard & Dailly, Sally & Melvin, Richard, 1992. "An Analysis of Risk and Return in Hog Finishing," Project Report Series 232358, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    7. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
    8. Elfakhani, Said & Visiting Professor & Wionzek, Ritchie J. & Chaudhury, Mohammed, 1999. "Thin trading and mispricing profit opportunities in the Canadian commodity futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 37-58.
    9. A. J. Aulton & C. T. Ennew & A. J. Rayner, 1997. "Efficiency Tests Of Futures Markets For Uk Agricultural Commodities," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 408-424, January.
    10. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    11. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Forecast Encompassing And Futures Market Efficiency: The Case Of Milk Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20267, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar, 2013. "Simultaneity, Forecasting and Profits in London Copper Futures," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 79-96, June.
    13. Epperson, James E. & Huang, Wan-Tran, 1992. "The Potential For Intraseasonal Market Flow Management Of Southeastern Sweet Potatoes," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 23(2), pages 1-8, June.
    14. Joseph, Kishore & Garcia, Philip & Peterson, Paul E., 2016. "Does the Boxed Beef Price Inform the Live Cattle Futures Price?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236166, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. J. Frank & P. Garcia, 2009. "Time-varying risk premium: further evidence in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 715-725.
    16. Sathye, Milind, 2006. "US Coffee C Futures: Some results from test of cointegration and GARCH," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    17. Epperson, James E. & Huang, Wan-Tran, 1994. "The Potential For Supply Management Of Southeastern Sweet Onions," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 25(2), pages 1-7, September.
    18. Christopher B. Barrett & Francis Chabari & DeeVon Bailey & Peter D. Little & D. Layne Coppock, 2003. "Livestock Pricing in the Northern Kenyan Rangelands," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 12(2), pages 127-155, June.
    19. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1996. "Efficiency Tests Of July Kansas City Wheat Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-12, December.
    20. Novak, Frank & Eales, James & Munro, Earl, 1993. "Profitability and Risk of Retained Ownership of Beef Calves," Project Report Series 232371, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    21. Novak, Frank S. & Viney, Bruce, 1995. "Alternative Pricing and Delivery Strategies for Alberta Cattle Feeders," Project Report Series 24044, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.

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