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Bayesian Estimation of Optimal Nitrogen Rates with a Non-Normally Distributed Stochastic Plateau Function

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  • Ouedraogo, Frederic B.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade

Abstract

Despite abundant literature on crop yield distributions, there is no strict agreement about functional form and distributional assumptions. This paper estimated the optimal nitrogen rates in wheat production assuming a stochastic plateau yield function with nonnormal random effects. The yield plateau parameter is assumed to be beta distributed. The parameters are estimated using a Bayesian estimation methods and a noninformative prior. The maximum likelihood method was also used to compare the results of the two approaches. The results indicate a slight difference in nitrogen recommendation, which can be associated with the fact that the Bayesian methods capture parameter uncertainty while the MLE does not.

Suggested Citation

  • Ouedraogo, Frederic B. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2014. "Bayesian Estimation of Optimal Nitrogen Rates with a Non-Normally Distributed Stochastic Plateau Function," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162447, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:saea14:162447
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.162447
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brorsen, B. Wade, 2013. "Using Bayesian Estimation and Decision Theory to Determine the Optimal Level of Nitrogen in Cotton," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142951, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Gallagher, Paul W., 1987. "U.S. Soybean Yields: Estimation and Forecasting with Non-Symmetric Disturbances," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10779, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004. "Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
    4. Hennessy, David A., 2009. "Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-19, April.
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    7. Gelson Tembo & B. Wade Brorsen & Francis M. Epplin & Emílio Tostão, 2008. "Crop Input Response Functions with Stochastic Plateaus," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 424-434.
    8. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xu, Wan & Khachatryan, Hayk, 2015. "The Role of Integrated Pest Management Practices in the U.S. Nursery Industry: A Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson Approach," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196808, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Raj, RV & Saranya, RS & Kumar, DS & Chinnadurai, M, 2018. "Farm-level economic impact of rice blast: a Bayesian approach," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 31(1).

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