IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332353.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic Transition and Income Distribution in China: CGE Modeling with Top-Down Micro-Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Xinxin
  • Chen, Kevin
  • Huang, Zuhui
  • Robinson, Sherman

Abstract

Demographic transition due to population aging is an emerging issue throughout the developing world, and especially in China, which has undergone demographic transition more rapidly than most industrial economies. This paper quantifies the distributional effects in the context of demographic transition using the integrated recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with top-down behavioral micro-simulation. The results of the poverty and inequality index indicate that population aging has a negative impact to the reduction of poverty while it is positive as refers to the equality. Elderly rural households are experiencing the most serious poverty and inequality problems compared with other household groups and within the group inequality worsens along with the demographic transition. These findings suggest that the social pension system should be improved, especially in rural China.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xinxin & Chen, Kevin & Huang, Zuhui & Robinson, Sherman, 2013. "Demographic Transition and Income Distribution in China: CGE Modeling with Top-Down Micro-Simulation," Conference papers 332353, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332353/files/6462.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Y. Cyrus Chu & Lily Jiang, 1997. "Demographic Transition, Family Structure, And Income Inequality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 665-669, November.
    2. Cai, Fang & Wang, Meiyan, 2010. "Growth and structural changes in employment in transition China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 71-81, March.
    3. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," DELTA Working Papers 2003-05, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    4. repec:bla:revinw:v:44:y:1998:i:3:p:361-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kazutoshi Miyazawa, 2006. "Growth and inequality: a demographic explanation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 559-578, July.
    6. Dahan, Momi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. "Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 29-52, March.
    7. Fumio Ohtake & Makoto Saito, 1998. "Population Aging And Consumption Inequality In Japan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 44(3), pages 361-381, September.
    8. Yumei Zhang & Xinxin Wang & Kevin Chen, 2013. "Growth and Distributive Effects of Public Infrastructure Investments in China," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: John Cockburn & Yazid Dissou & Jean-Yves Duclos & Luca Tiberti (ed.), Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Asia, edition 127, pages 87-116, Springer.
    9. Cai Fang & Wang Dewen, 2005. "Demographic transition: implications for growth," Labor and Demography 0512001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Xiujian Peng & Yinhua Mai, 2008. "Population Ageing, Labour Market Reform and Economic Growth in China - A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-174, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    11. Zhai, Fan & Hertel, Thomas W., 2009. "Economic and Poverty Impacts of Agricultural, Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52787, World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xinxin & Chen, Kevin & Huang, Zuhui, 2013. "The Impact of China's Demographic Transition on Economic Growth and Income Distribution: CGE Modeling with Top-Down Micro-Simulation," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151276, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Wang, Xinxin & Chen, Kevin Z. & Robinson, Sherman & Huang, Zuhui, 2016. "Will China’s demographic transition exacerbate its income inequality? A CGE modeling with top-down microsimulation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1560, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Hwang, Seokchae & Choe, Chung & Choi, Koangsung, 2021. "Population ageing and income inequality," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Xinxin Wang & Kevin Z. Chen & Sherman Robinson & Zuhui Huang, 2017. "Will China's demographic transition exacerbate its income inequality?–CGE modeling with top-down microsimulation," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 227-252, April.
    5. Dedry, Antoine & Onder, Harun & Pestieau, Pierre, 2017. "Aging, social security design, and capital accumulation," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 145-155.
    6. Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "The dual economy in long-run development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 287-312, December.
    7. Scott Rozelle & Yiran Xia & Dimitris Friesen & Bronson Vanderjack & Nourya Cohen, 2020. "Moving Beyond Lewis: Employment and Wage Trends in China’s High- and Low-Skilled Industries and the Emergence of an Era of Polarization," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 555-589, December.
    8. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    9. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & John Cockburn, 2010. "Guest Editorial - Macro-micro analytics: background, motivation, advantages and remaining challenges," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7.
    10. International Labour Organization., 2015. "Global employment trends for youth 2015 : scaling up investments in decent jobs for youth," Global Employment Trends Reports 994891803402676, International Labour Office, Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department.
    11. Andrew Feltenstein & Luciana Lopes & Janet Porras Mendoza & Sally Wallace, 2013. "“The Impact of Micro-simulation and CGE modeling on Tax Reform and Tax Advice in Developing Countries”: A Survey of Alternative Approaches and an Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1309, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    12. Maheshwar Rao & Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama, 2013. "‘A Systems Approach to Analyse the Impacts of Water Policy Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin: a conceptual and an analytical framework’," NATSEM Working Paper Series 13/22, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    13. Azarnert, Leonid V., 2010. "Immigration, fertility, and human capital: A model of economic decline of the West," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 431-440, December.
    14. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Luc Savard & Stéphane Mussard, 2005. "Micro-simulation and Multi-decomposition: A Case Study: Philippines," Cahiers de recherche 05-02, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    16. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2011. "A politically feasible social security reform with a two-tier structure," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 199-224, September.
    17. Hartono, Djoni & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2008. "The economy-wide impact of controlling energy consumption in Indonesia: An analysis using a Social Accounting Matrix framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1404-1419, April.
    18. Fumio OHTAKE, 2008. "Inequality in Japan," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 87-109, June.
    19. Caihua Xu & Qian Wang & Shah Fahad & Masaru Kagatsume & Jin Yu, 2022. "Impact of Off-Farm Employment on Farmland Transfer: Insight on the Mediating Role of Agricultural Production Service Outsourcing," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-16, October.
    20. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.