Global-to-local modelling of land use dynamics in Vietnam

This paper presents the preliminary results of two hypothetical futures for Vietnam, a High Climate Impact and a High Economic Growth Scenario using a modified version of GTAP. The land use component has been improved and more detailed data for Vietnam has been added. However, the most notable feature is the implantation of a global-to-local modelling approach, which combines the macroeconomic MAGNET model and CLUE land use model. Results show that the structure of the Vietnamese economy, land distribution, and the composition of the food consumption basket are little affected by the scenarios. Impacts are, however, visible across sectors, with important inter-sectoral linkages between primary and processing industrial sectors. Climate change, primarily modelled via yields, is shown to slow down the economy. An increased demand for land by crops at the cost of livestock and commercial (production) forestry pushes up land prices with knock-on effects for the rest of the economy. Food security deteriorates across the globe and in Vietnam, with substitution towards cheaper imports. Pursuing higher economic growth by increasing yields and technological progress in manufacturing and agriculture sectors can turn these developments around and minimise land price increases. Food security improves in Vietnam (and globally), with substitution towards cheaper domestic goods and a slight shift away from processed rice towards other food products. Future land use maps reveal that the largest changes will take place in the conversion of nonproduction forests and bare and shrub land to production forest. The increase of built up land is partly the result of a decrease in paddy land. The increase in urban area is mainly located in the Red River Delta region, the northern part of the North Central Coast and in the Central Highlands. While land use patterns across scenarios are relatively similar, climate change is shown to lead to a slightly lower increase of the production forest areas, while a higher economic growth path for Vietnam is shown to result in a higher growth of production forest, mainly in the west, and urban areas. An overlay of future paddy and urban area with potential flood maps show that a significant area of these land uses are threatened by floods, which are likely to result in reduced crop productivity and economic losses, posing a threat to food security.