IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/midasp/11498.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic And Social Consequences Of Biotechnology: A Scenario Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Neven, David
  • Peterson, H. Christopher
  • Weatherspoon, Dave D.

Abstract

Over the years agricultural technology has created remarkable commodity production growth rates and enhanced general economic growth through food production, manufactured goods and trade for most nations. Biotechnology holds the promise of continuing this remarkable record. There is a long list of potential benefits of biotechnology but unfortunately the perceived costs/risks are also many. These concerns have lead to significant consumer reluctance to accept the technology and, in some cases, outright consumer rejection of the technology. To discuss the future of biotechnology, scenario analysis is used to examine the social and economic impact of biotechnology on industrialized and emerging nations. Four scenarios are discussed in detail: biotechnology may be formally or informally banned (Scenario 1), fully accepted (Scenario 2), marketed through strict labeling (Scenario 3), or limited to non-food applications (Scenario 4). Consumer acceptance of this technology will be key to determining which scenario becomes the future for each nation. The likelihood of each scenario is different for each nation, the U.S. will most likely evolve into scenario 2 or 3, while in the EU scenarios 1 or 4 are more likely. Determining the future for emerging nations is extremely complex and dependent on several factors like malnutrition rates, environmental safety and historical trading routes. Each scenario has a major impact on small producers worldwide which ultimately influences the health of rural communities. The analysis indicates that emerging nations are the most sensitive to the timing of decisions being made about the future of biotechnology. If biotechnology becomes a reality, new data will be required to assess the social and economic impact of this technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Neven, David & Peterson, H. Christopher & Weatherspoon, Dave D., 2001. "Economic And Social Consequences Of Biotechnology: A Scenario Analysis," Staff Paper Series 11498, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:midasp:11498
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.11498
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/11498/files/sp01-23.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.11498?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    2. Peterson, H. Christopher & Weatherspoon, Dave D., 2001. "The Role Of Scientific And Business Integrity In The Future Of Biotechnology: A Scenario Analysis," Staff Paper Series 11683, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economic Development Technological Change, and Growth > Technological Change: Choices and Consequences

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chu-Shiu Li, 2005. "Risk Signaling in the Health Insurance Market," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(1), pages 45-52, April.
    2. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Chi-Wa Yuen, 1999. "An Information-Based Model of Foreign Direct Investment: The Gains from Trade Revisited," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 579-596, November.
    3. Tisdell, Clem, 2014. "Information Technology's Impacts on Productivity, Welfare and Social Change: Second Version," Economic Theory, Applications and Issues Working Papers 195701, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    4. Michael R. CARTER & Alain de JANVRY & Elisabeth SADOULET & Alexandros SARRIS, 2014. "Index-based weather insurance for developing countries: A review of evidence and a set of propositions for up-scaling," Working Papers P111, FERDI.
    5. Sevcan Yesiltas, 2009. "Financing Constraints and Investment: The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Firms," 2009 Meeting Papers 874, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Konduru, Srinivasa & Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas G. & Magnier, Alexandre, 2009. "GMO Testing Strategies and Implications for Trade: A Game Theoretic Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49594, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. König, Philipp J. & Pothier, David, 2018. "Safe but fragile: Information acquisition, sponsor support and shadow bank runs," Discussion Papers 15/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Andrea Attar & Thomas Mariotti & François Salanié, 2021. "Entry-Proofness and Discriminatory Pricing under Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2623-2659, August.
    9. Reynolds, Travis & Kolodinsky, Jane & Murray, Byron, 2012. "Consumer preferences and willingness to pay for compact fluorescent lighting: Policy implications for energy efficiency promotion in Saint Lucia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 712-722.
    10. Ginger Zhe Jin & Andrew Kato & John A. List, 2010. "That’S News To Me! Information Revelation In Professional Certification Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 104-122, January.
    11. Luigino Bruni & Pier Luigi Porta, 2016. "Happiness and quality of life reconciled," Chapters, in: Luigino Bruni & Pier Luigi Porta (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Happiness and Quality of Life, chapter 1, pages 1-19, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Sukumar Vellakkal, 2013. "Determinants of Enrolment in Voluntary Health Insurance: Evidences from a Mixed Method Study, Kerala, India," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 99-107, April.
    13. Loncarski, I. & Ter Horst, J.R. & Veld, C.H., 2006. "Why do Companies issue Convertible Bond Loans? An Empirical Analysis for the Canadian Market," Other publications TiSEM 6036423f-db13-4e07-b9d1-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Michael A. Arnold & Joshua M. Duke & Kent D. Messer, 2013. "Adverse Selection in Reverse Auctions for Ecosystem Services," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(3), pages 387-412.
    15. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    16. Ritu Agarwal & Michelle Dugas & Guodong (Gordon) Gao & P. K. Kannan, 2020. "Emerging technologies and analytics for a new era of value-centered marketing in healthcare," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 9-23, January.
    17. Villas-Boas, Sofia B, 2020. "Reduced Form Evidence on Belief Updating Under Asymmetric Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt08c456vk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    18. Yaofeng Fu & Ruokun Huang & Yiran Sheng, 2017. "Labor Contract Law -An Economic View," Papers 1702.03977, arXiv.org.
    19. Ghosh, Suman, 2007. "Job mobility and careers in firms," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 603-621, June.
    20. Jonathan Libgober, 2021. "Identifying Wisdom (of the Crowd): A Regression Approach," Papers 2105.07097, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:midasp:11498. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/damsuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.