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Brexit and Everything But Arms (EBA) Countries: Losing Preferences

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  • Olekseyuk, Zoryana
  • Osorio Rodarte, Israel

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of Brexit on the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) that currently enjoy a preferential treatment under the Everything But Arms (EBA) treaty. We use an innovative multi-region and multi-sector general-equilibrium simulation model incorporating a competitive selection of heterogeneous manufacturing firms and FDI in services. In addition, we conduct a set of microsimulations using the Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) model and, therefore, provide detailed results for poverty and shared prosperity. Our results indicate that an increase in UK’s tariffs and NTBs against the EBA countries along with Brexit would lead to a negative impact in all included LDCs with the highest welfare change of -1.39% in Cambodia. The micro-simulations illustrate a considerable increase in the share of population under the poverty line.

Suggested Citation

  • Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Osorio Rodarte, Israel, 2018. "Brexit and Everything But Arms (EBA) Countries: Losing Preferences," Conference papers 332960, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332960
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332960/files/9086.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Busch, Berthold & Matthes, Jürgen, 2016. "Brexit - the economic impact: A meta-analysis," IW-Reports 10/2016, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    2. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    3. Jacob, Arun & Graham, Louis & Moller, Anders K, 2017. "Implications of Brexit to the Asia-Pacific region: with a focus on least developed countries," MPRA Paper 78941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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