Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets

In order to study short run price shock propagation, we model twenty seven sub-Saharan African domestic maize markets within a Global Vector AutorRegression framework. The main purpose is to fully embed multilateral trade flows as a way to better structure local price transmission dynamics and interdependencies and get a more comprehensive picture of food price shocks propagation. We found a generally weak integration of African domestic maize markets with regional and global markets. However, even in the absence of long run integration, between-country market contagion remains significant and short run price shocks propagate rapidly. Most local markets appear to be more responsive to local than to global shocks. We also identify price shock channels linking Western African countries to South Africa through maritime trade routes. Acknowledgement : This research was conducted in the context of Monitoring and Analyzing Food and Agricultural Policies (MAFAP) Program implemented by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in collaboration with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and financially supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID, the Netherlands and Germany. www.fao.org/in-action/mafap.