IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i8p3136-d1372755.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price Dynamics in South African Agriculture: A Study of Cross-Commodity Spillovers between Grain and Livestock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Arlindo Monteiro

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa)

  • Brent Damian Jammer

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein 9300, South Africa)

Abstract

In South Africa, the agricultural sector is a crucial pillar of the economy, with the livestock and grain industries playing significant roles in ensuring food security, fostering economic growth, and providing employment opportunities, particularly in rural areas. This research addresses the relatively unexplored relationship between the livestock and grain industries in South Africa. This study employs a comprehensive approach using a VAR/VECM framework alongside VECM Granger causality tests, Toda Yamamoto causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. The main findings of this study demonstrate a long-run relationship among the study variables, with consistently low error correction terms indicating slow short-term adjustments. Significant long-run relationships were observed between grain feed prices and livestock prices, where yellow maize and soybean prices affect live weaner prices, while beef carcass prices influence yellow maize prices. Overall, the results highlight the pivotal role that yellow maize plays as a link between the South African livestock and grain markets. The study concluded that policy formulation for the South African agricultural sector must consider the interconnected nature of the grain and livestock markets to achieve sustainable and effective outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Arlindo Monteiro & Brent Damian Jammer, 2024. "Price Dynamics in South African Agriculture: A Study of Cross-Commodity Spillovers between Grain and Livestock Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:3136-:d:1372755
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3136/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3136/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence, John D. & Mintert, James R. & Anderson, John D. & Anderson, David P., 2008. "Feed Grains and Livestock: Impacts on Meat Supplies and Prices," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-5.
    2. Elgammal, Mohammed M. & Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Alshami, Abdullah, 2021. "Price and volatility spillovers between global equity, gold, and energy markets prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Pierre, G. & Kaminsky, J., 2018. "Cross country maize market linkages in Africa: integration and price transmission across local and global markets," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277126, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2001. "Maximum eigenvalue versus trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-8.
    6. Marlene Louw & Ferdi Meyer & Johann Kirsten, 2017. "Vertical price transmission and its inflationary implications in South African food chains," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 110-122, April.
    7. Pratap Kumar JENA, 2016. "Commodity market integration and price transmission: Empirical evidence from India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 283-306, Autumn.
    8. C J Auret & C C Schmitt, 2008. "An Explanatory Model of South African White Maize Futures Prices," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 103-131, April.
    9. Philly Ramoroka & Chiedza L. Muchopa, 2022. "Inter-commodity Price Transmission between Maize and Wheat in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 57-63, September.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    11. Jitka Sirohi & Zuzana Hloušková & Klára Bartoňová & Karel Malec & Mansoor Maitah & Robert Koželský, 2023. "The Vertical Price Transmission in Pork Meat Production in the Czech Republic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, June.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    14. Piotr FISZEDER & Witold ORZESZKO, 2018. "Nonlinear Granger causality between grains and livestock," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 64(7), pages 328-336.
    15. Marsh, John M., 2007. "Cross-Sector Relationships Between the Corn Feed Grains and Livestock and Poultry Economies," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, April.
    16. Pratap Kumar JENA, 2016. "Commodity market integration and price transmission: Empirical evidence from India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 283-306, Autumn.
    17. Just, Małgorzata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2022. "Dynamic spillover transmission in agricultural commodity markets: What has changed after the COVID-19 threat?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Korhan Gokmenoglu & Siamand Hesami, 2019. "Real estate prices and stock market in Germany: analysis based on hedonic price index," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 687-707, April.
    2. Naser, Hanan, 2015. "Analysing the long-run relationship among oil market, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: An evidence from emerging economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 421-434.
    3. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    4. Boswijk, H. Peter & Jansson, Michael & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2015. "Improved likelihood ratio tests for cointegration rank in the VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 97-110.
    5. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    6. Chee-Keong Choong & Wai-Ching Poon & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Zulkornain Yusop, 2003. "The Validity of PPP Theory in ASEAN-Five: Another Look on Cointegration and Panel Data Analysis," International Trade 0309018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. John L. Glascock & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang & Tingyu Zhou, 2018. "Can Investors Hold More Real Estate? Evidence from Statistical Properties of Listed REIT versus Non-REIT Property Companies in the U.S," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 274-302, February.
    8. T.G. Saji, 2018. "Price transmission for natural rubber: India integration with world markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 155-168, Winter.
    9. Nyakundi M. Michieka, 2015. "Short- and Long-Run Analysis of Factors Affecting Electricity Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 639-646.
    10. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    11. J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang & Tingyu Zhou, 2017. "An Anatomy of the Interrelationship between Equity and Mortgage REITs," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(3), pages 287-324.
    12. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    13. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Sattar, Rashid, 2010. "Trade, Growth and Povety: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 20904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2019. "Does Oil Price Drive World Food Prices? Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Modeling," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, February.
    15. Junaid Ashraf, 2023. "Does political risk undermine environment and economic development in Pakistan? Empirical evidence from China–Pakistan economic corridor," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 581-608, February.
    16. Chaido Dritsaki, 2016. "Real wages, inflation, and labor productivity: Evidences from Bulgaria and Romania," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 24-36, October.
    17. Shahiduzzaman, Md & Alam, Khorshed, 2012. "Cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output: Assessing the evidence from Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2182-2188.
    18. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    20. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:8:p:3136-:d:1372755. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.