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Linking distress of financial institutions to macrofinancial shocks

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  • di Mauro, Filippo
  • Dées, Stéphane
  • Al-Haschimi, Alexander
  • Jančoková, Martina

Abstract

This paper links granular data of financial institutions to global macroeconomic variables using an infinite-dimensional vector autoregressive (IVAR) model framework. The approach taken allows for an assessment of the two-way links between the financial system and the macroeconomy, while accounting for heterogeneity among financial institutions and the role of international linkages in the transmission of shocks. The model is estimated using macroeconomic data for 21 countries and default probability estimates for 35 euro area financial institutions. This framework is used to assess the impact of foreign macroeconomic shocks on default risks of euro area financial firms. In addition, spillover effects of firm-specific shocks are investigated. The model captures the important role of international linkages, showing that economic shocks in the US can generate a rise in the default probabilities of euro area firms that are of a significant magnitude compared to recent historical episodes such as the financial crisis. Moreover, the potential heterogeneity across financial firms JEL Classification: C33, G33

Suggested Citation

  • di Mauro, Filippo & Dées, Stéphane & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Jančoková, Martina, 2014. "Linking distress of financial institutions to macrofinancial shocks," Working Paper Series 1749, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141749
    Note: 437559
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    Cited by:

    1. Kok, Christoffer & Gross, Marco & Żochowski, Dawid, 2016. "The impact of bank capital on economic activity - evidence from a mixed-cross-section GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1888, European Central Bank.
    2. Laura Gianfagna & Armando Rungi, 2017. "Does corporate control matter to financial volatility?," Working Papers 09/2017, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Nov 2017.
    3. Behn, Markus & Gross, Marco & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2016. "Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy," ESRB Working Paper Series 17, European Systemic Risk Board.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate sector credit risk; default frequencies; GVAR; infinite-dimensional VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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