IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae18/275969.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture Productivity by 2035: A case study of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Khan, M.A.
  • Tahir, A.

Abstract

Climate Change is an ever growing issue with a great importance due to wide socio-economic effects. Agriculture is the most climate sensitive economic sector that is influenced both positively and negatively by climate change. A change in temperature or precipitation could cause a significant change in crops productivity and yields. Different crop/bio-physical experts have been making efforts to process the impact of climate on crop yields through different crop modellings using input from different global climate models. In this research, the output of the crop models is used as a shock in the global computable general equilibrium economic model to evaluate the economic effects of climate change. Pakistan has two crop seasons – Kharif and Rabi- therefore two major crops i.e. Wheat and Rice have been chosen for this analysis. A Baseline scenario, representing business as usual with no change in climate, has been created using projections for GDP, population, factor supplies, and required food production. A counterfactual experiment has done using the same GDP and population growth as in the baseline but with addition of crop yield shocks from bio-physical models. A comparison of these two experiments has shown the economic effects of climate change by 2035.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, M.A. & Tahir, A., 2018. "Economic Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture Productivity by 2035: A case study of Pakistan," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275969, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:275969
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.275969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/275969/files/2352.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.275969?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    2. Yousuf, I. & Ghumman, A.R. & Hashmi, H.N. & Kamal, M.A., 2014. "Carbon emissions from power sector in Pakistan and opportunities to mitigate those," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 71-77.
    3. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    4. Molua, Ernest L. & Lambi, Cornelius M., 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Cameroon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4364, The World Bank.
    5. Molua, Ernest L., 2008. "Turning up the heat on African agriculture: The impact of climate change on Cameroon’s agriculture," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Marshall Burke & Kyle Emerick, 2016. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from US Agriculture," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 106-140, August.
    7. Munir Ahmad & Umar Farooq, 2010. "The State of Food Security in Pakistan: Future Challenges and Coping Strategies," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 903-923.
    8. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Karanja, Fredrick K, 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4334, The World Bank.
    9. Mirza Nomman Ahmed & Michael Schmitz, 2011. "Economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the agriculture of Pakistan," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, January.
    10. Ahmed, Mirza & Schmitz, Michael, 2011. "Economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the agriculture of Pakistan," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, January.
    11. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Aamir Khan & Alishba Tahir & Nabila Khurshid & Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Mukhtar Ahmed & Houcine Boughanmi, 2020. "Economic Effects of Climate Change-Induced Loss of Agricultural Production by 2050: A Case Study of Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Muhammad Ashraf & Adnan Arshad & Praharsh M. Patel & Adeel Khan & Huma Qamar & Ristina Siti-Sundari & Muhammad Usman Ghani & Ali Amin & Jamilur Rehman Babar, 2021. "Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2127-2151, December.
    3. Yu, Jisang & Villoria, Nelson B. & Hendricks, Nathan P., 2019. "The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339333, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Inkyo Cheong & Valijon Turakulov, 2022. "How Central Asia to Escape from trade isolation?: Policy targeted scenarios by CGE modelling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2622-2648, August.
    5. Balie, Jean & Strutt, Anna & Nelgen, Signe & Narayanan, 2018. "Infrastructure investments for improved market access in subSaharan Africa: A CGE analysis," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), June.
    6. Itakura, Ken, 2019. "Incorporating Global Value Chains into the Dynamic GTAP Model [tentative results]," Conference papers 333111, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Khan, Aamir & Walmsley, Terrie & Mukhopadhyay, Kakali, 2019. "Trade Liberalization and Income Inequality: The Case for Pakistan," Conference papers 333125, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2018. "The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-32.
    9. Nelson Villoria & Rachael Garrett & Florian Gollnow & Kimberly Carlson, 2022. "Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Maros Ivanic & Jayson Beckman & Noe Nava, 2023. "Estimation of the Value-Added/Intermediate Input Substitution Elasticities Consistent with the GTAP Data," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 8(2), pages 134-158, December.
    11. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    12. Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Weather Shocks, Unconditional Cash Transfers and Household Food Outcomes," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:8, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    13. Rumiana Górska, 2022. "Sectoral effects of the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement for the European Union countries," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 99-114, June.
    14. Ken Itakura, 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 77-93, January.
    15. Bruno Lanz & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2016. "GTAPINGAMS, version 9: Multiregional and small open economy models with alternative demand systems," IRENE Working Papers 16-08, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Oyamada,Kazuhiko, 2023. "Behavioral characteristics of mrio-based global age models with variable elasticity of substitution between varieties," IDE Discussion Papers 881, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    17. Fahad, Shah & Wang, Jing & Hu, Guangyin & Wang, Hui & Yang, Xiaoying & Shah, Ashfaq Ahmad & Huong, Nguyen Thi Lan & Bilal, Arshad, 2018. "Empirical analysis of factors influencing farmers crop insurance decisions in Pakistan: Evidence from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 459-467.
    18. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    19. J.A. Giesecke & R. Waschik & N.H. Tran, 2019. "Modelling the Consequences of the U.S.-China Trade War and Related Trade Frictions for the U.S., Chinese, Australian and Global Economies," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-294, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    20. Gabriela Ortiz Valverde & Maria C. Latorre, 2020. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of Brexit: Barriers to trade and immigration restrictions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 705-728, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Environmental Economics and Policy; International Development;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:275969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.