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What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments

Author

Listed:
  • Martinez, Pilar
  • Blanco, Maria
  • Van Doorslaer, Benjamin
  • Ramos, Fabien
  • Stanca, Lucian

Abstract

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compare a reference scenario for 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results show that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Martinez, Pilar & Blanco, Maria & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Ramos, Fabien & Stanca, Lucian, 2015. "What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212230, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212230
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212230
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shrestha, Shailesh & Ciaian, Pavel & Himics, Mihay & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2013. "Impacts of Climate Change on EU Agriculture," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Blanco, Maria & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin, 2014. "Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182826, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-10, July.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty;
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