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Turkey's Accession to the EU: What Will the Common Agricultural Policy Cost?

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  • Grethe, Harald

Abstract

At the EU Council in December 2004, European heads of governments will decide on a potential date for the start of EU accession negotiations with Turkey. Various recent analyses assess the cost of applying the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU (CAP) to Turkey without taking into account the specific structure of the agricultural sector in Turkey, which would determine the receipts from EU funds. This paper assesses potential budgetary effects resulting from the application of the CAP to Turkey, if Turkey should accede in 2014. The analysis is based on macroeconomic projections from the literature, equilibrium modelling of the Turkish agricultural sector, and projections of the future development of the CAP. It is found that total EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could total about €3.3 billion in 2014 and rise to €5 billion in 2024 due to full phasing in of direct payments and rural development policies. The resulting net transfer under the CAP to Turkey would be about €1.6 billion in 2014 and could increase to €2.6 billion in 2024. Such sums take a backseat to projected transfers under the structural policy of the EU and the overall political project of including Turkey in the EU. Key Words: Turkey, EU accession, CAP, budgetary effects Im Dezember 2004 wird der Europäische Rat über die Festlegung eines Zeitpunkts zur Aufnahme von Beitrittsverhandlungen mit der Türkei entscheiden. Die Diskussion über die aus der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik der EU (GAP) resultierenden Budgetwirkungen eines EUBeitritts basiert bisher meist auf Schatzungen, die die spezifische Struktur des turkischen Agrarsektors sowie zukunftige Anderungen der GAP bis zu einem Beitritt der Turkei kaum einbeziehen. In diesem Beitrag werden die aus der GAP resultierenden Budgetwirkungen eines potentiellen EU-Beitritts der Türkei im Jahr 2014 auf Grundlage der Literatur entnommener makrookonomischer Projektionen, Abschatzungen zukunftiger Anderungen der GAP sowie einem Gleichgewichtsmodell des turkischen Agrarsektors analysiert. Im Ergebnis ergeben sich EU-Zahlungen an die Türkei im Rahmen der GAP von insgesamt 3,3 Mrd. Euro im Jahr 2014, die nach einer schrittweisen Einfuhrung des vollen Umfangs der GAP im Jahre 2024 etwa 5 Mrd. Euro betragen. Der sich aus der GAP potentiell ergebende Netto-Transfer aus dem EU-Budget an die Türkei betragt 1,6 Mrd. Euro im Jahr 2014 und steigt bis 2024 auf etwa 2,6 Mrd. Euro an. Im Verhaltnis zu den sich voraussichtlich aus der europaischen Strukturpolitik ergebenden Transfers und dem politischen Gesamtvorhaben einer Integration der Turkei sind diese Summen eher unbedeutend. Schlusselworter: Turkei, EU-Beitritt, Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik, budgetwirkungen

Suggested Citation

  • Grethe, Harald, 2004. "Turkey's Accession to the EU: What Will the Common Agricultural Policy Cost?," Working Paper Series 18821, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:huiawp:18821
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.18821
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    1. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    2. Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver & Huettel, Silke, 2003. "Empirische Validierung von Realoptionsmodellen," Working Paper Series 18825, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erol H. Cakmak & Hasan Dudu, 2014. "Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus on Agriculture and Food The case of Turkey," JRC Research Reports JRC84201, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Grethe, Harald, 2004. "What Can Turkey Gain From Full Agricultural Market Integration With The Eu Without Being A Member?," Working Papers 14604, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    3. Badri, Balghis & Knuth, Hardine, 2008. "The Engendered Spaces in the Village at the Edge of the Capital: A Case Study of Al Gharaza/Sudan," Working Paper Series 43095, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    4. Gulumser, Aliye Ahu & Baycan Levent, Tuzin & Nijkamp, Peter, 2007. "Changing trends in rural self-employment in Europe," Serie Research Memoranda 0017, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    5. Nolte, Stephan, 2006. "The application of spatial models in the analysis of bilateral trade flows: An alternative to the Armington approach for the world sugar market," Working Paper Series 10288, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Gülümser, A.A. & Baycan-Levent, T. & Nijkamp, Peter, 2008. "Changing trends in rural self-employment in Europe and Turkey," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    7. Eruygur, H.O. & Cakmak, Erol H., 2008. "EU Integration of Turkey: Implications for Turkish Agriculture," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44213, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. von Witzke, Harald & Kirschke, Dieter & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Noleppa, Steffen, 2005. "The Economics of Alternative Strategies for the Reduction of Food-borne Diseases in Developing Countries: The Case of Diarrhea in Rwanda," Working Paper Series 18830, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    9. Sandor Richter, 2008. "Agricultural Support: Consequences of the Eventual Accession of the Balkan Countries to the Europe Union," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(2), pages 183-191.

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    Agricultural and Food Policy;

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