IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaae11/114226.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises in West Africa by Using Price Signals

Author

Listed:
  • Araujo, Claudio
  • Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine
  • Brunelin, Stephanie

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to exploit grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify which markets play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period proceeding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements on "leading markets" during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo, Claudio & Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine & Brunelin, Stephanie, 2011. "Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises in West Africa by Using Price Signals," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114226, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114226
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.114226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/114226/files/Araujo_Claudio_135.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.114226?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    3. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, November.
    4. Ravallion, Martin, 1985. "The Performance of Rice Markets in Bangladesh during the 1974 Famine," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(377), pages 15-29, March.
    5. Lancaster, Tony, 2000. "The incidental parameter problem since 1948," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 391-413, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Araujo, Claudio & Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine & Brunelin, Stéphanie, 2012. "Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1882-1894.
    2. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Claudio ARAUJO & Stephanie BRUNELIN, 2010. "Alert at Maradi: preventing food crisis using price signals," Working Papers 201023, CERDI.
    3. Trottmann, Maria & Zweifel, Peter & Beck, Konstantin, 2012. "Supply-side and demand-side cost sharing in deregulated social health insurance: Which is more effective?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 231-242.
    4. Greene, William, 2007. "Functional Form and Heterogeneity in Models for Count Data," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 113-218, August.
    5. Lorenzo Cassi & Anne Plunket, 2014. "Proximity, network formation and inventive performance: in search of the proximity paradox," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(2), pages 395-422, September.
    6. Niklas Elert, 2014. "What determines entry? Evidence from Sweden," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), pages 55-92, August.
    7. John Geweke & Joel Horowitz & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," CESifo Working Paper Series 1870, CESifo.
    8. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p4oq2cqb0 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. David M. Drukker, 2009. "Generalized method of moments estimators in Stata," DC09 Stata Conference 0, Stata Users Group.
    11. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2014. "A Within Estimator for Three-Level Data: An Application to the WTO Effect on Trade Flows," Discussion Papers Series 501, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    12. Dimitrios Christelis & Loreti I. Dobrescu, 2012. "The Impact of Social Activities on Cognitive Ageing: Evidence from Eleven European Countries," CSEF Working Papers 320, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    13. Hübler, Olaf, 2005. "Panel Data Econometrics: Modelling and Estimation," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-319, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    14. Jochmans, Koen, 2015. "Multiplicative-error models with sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 315-327.
    15. Medina-Durango, Carlos Alberto & Posso Suárez, Christian Manuel & Tamayo, Jorge A. & Monsalve, Emma, 2012. "Dinámica de la demanda laboral en la industria manufacturera colombiana 1993-2009 : una estimación panel VAR," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 7, pages 289-330, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0031f620 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Massimo Filippini & Giuliano Masiero & Diego Medici, 2012. "The demand for school meals: an analysis of stated choices by Swiss households," Quaderni della facoltà di Scienze economiche dell'Università di Lugano 1204, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.
    18. Nesta, Lionel & Vona, Francesco & Nicolli, Francesco, 2014. "Environmental policies, competition and innovation in renewable energy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 396-411.
    19. Bartolucci, Francesco & Belotti, Federico & Peracchi, Franco, 2015. "Testing for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity in generalized linear models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 111-123.
    20. Geert Dhaene & Koen Jochmans, 2015. "Split-panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-effect Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 991-1030.
    21. Elek, P. & Varadi, B. & Varga, M., 2014. "Effects of geographical accessibility on the use of outpatient care services: quasi-experimental evidence from administrative panel data," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 14/17, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    22. Fernández-Val, Iván & Vella, Francis, 2011. "Bias corrections for two-step fixed effects panel data estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 144-162, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Security and Poverty;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.