IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaa123/122467.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

DYNAMIC CONTROL AS MEASURE TO STABILIZE AGRICULTUTAL MARKETS: On Theory and Options to Correct Cyclical Movements

Author

Listed:
  • Nuppenau, Ernst-August

Abstract

This paper deals with a control theory approach to stabilize cyclical price movements. Firstly, we pursue a welfare economist’s approach, delineating a public objective function derived from consumer and producer surplus as well as trade budget at world market price. Trade is a con¬trol variable and the market price is a state variable. Moreover we assume adaptive formation of price expectation at the producer side. Secondly the control problem is outline and solved by discrete control theory. Thirdly, the paper makes suggestions how to translate the optimal control framework and results into a trade policy of the envisaged country. Finally, limitations are discussed and an outlook for broadening the concept for international concerns is offered.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuppenau, Ernst-August, 2012. "DYNAMIC CONTROL AS MEASURE TO STABILIZE AGRICULTUTAL MARKETS: On Theory and Options to Correct Cyclical Movements," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122467, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122467
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.122467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/122467/files/Nuppenau.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.122467?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johnson, Michael D. & Plott, Charles R., 1989. "The effect of two trading institutions on price expectations and the stability of supply-response lag markets," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 189-216, June.
    2. Richard E. Just & Darell L. Hueth & Andrew Schmitz (ed.), 2008. "Applied Welfare Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12892.
    3. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1974. "Price Expectations and the Welfare Gains from Price Stabilization," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(4), pages 706-716.
    4. Nerlove, Marc & Grether, David M. & Carvalho, José L., 1979. "Analysis of Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780125157506 edited by Shell, Karl.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jerry A. Hausman & Mark W. Watson, 1983. "Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present," NBER Working Papers 1133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    3. Koop, Gary & Dijk, Herman K. Van, 2000. "Testing for integration using evolving trend and seasonals models: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 261-291, August.
    4. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    5. Christina Korting & Harry de Gorter & David R Just, 2019. "Who Will Pay for Increasing Biofuel Mandates? Incidence of the Renewable Fuel Standard Given a Binding Blend Wall," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 492-506.
    6. Fertő, Imre, 1995. "A mezőgazdasági árak stabilizálásának problémáiról [On the problems of stabilizing agricultural prices]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 256-269.
    7. Marc Nerlove, 1979. "The Dynamics of Supply: Retrospect and Prospect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 874-888.
    8. Victor Gomez & Jorg Breitung, 1999. "The Beveridge–Nelson Decomposition: A Different Perspective with New Results," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 527-535, September.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5384 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tommaso Proietti, 2012. "Seasonality, Forecast Extensions And Business Cycle Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 555-569, September.
    11. Elodie Maître d'Hôtel & Tristan Le Cotty & Thom Jayne, 2013. "Trade Policy Inconsistency and Maize Price Volatility: An ARCH Approach in Kenya," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 607-620, December.
    12. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    13. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    14. Luca Fanelli, 2009. "Estimation of quasi-rational DSGE monetary models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 3, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
    15. Bigman, David, 1982. "Buffer stocks operation with different supply specification: A simulation analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 77-87.
    16. Sunil Kanwar, 2004. "Price Incentives, Nonprice factors, and Crop Supply Response:The Indian Cash Crops," Working papers 132, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    17. Menelaos Karanasos, "undated". "The Covariance Structure of Mixed ARMA Models," Discussion Papers 00/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    18. Freebairn, John W., 1976. "Welfare Implications Of More Accurate Rational Forecast Prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 1-11, August.
    19. Ghysels, E., 1993. "A Time Series Model with Periodic Stochastic Regime Switching," Cahiers de recherche 9314, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    20. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of time series models: the Kalman filter and beyond," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 15, pages 334-362, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.