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An resilience analysis of the contraction of the accommodation and food service on the Scottish food industry

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  • Dogbe, Wisdom

Abstract

The Scottish economy, such as the United Kingdom (UK) economy, has been exposed to several adverse shocks over the past 5 years. Examples of these are the effect of the UK exiting the European Union (Brexit), the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and more recently the Russia-Ukraine war, which can result in adverse direct and indirect economic losses across various sectors of the economy. The purpose of this paper is threefold: (1) to explore the degree of resilience of the Scottish food and drinks sector, (2) to estimate the effects on interconnected sectors of the economy; and (3) to estimate the economic losses which is the financial value associated with the reduction in output. For this analysis, the study relied on the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM). The results indicate that the accommodation and food service sector was the most affect by the covid-19 pandemic lockdown contracting by about 60 per cent having a cascading effect on the remaining 17 sectors of the economy. The Processed and preserved fish, fruits and vegetable sector is the least resilient whilst Preserved meat and meat products sector is the most resilient to final demand disruption in the accommodation and food service sector. The least economically affected sector was the other food products sector whilst the other services sector had the highest economic loss. Despite the fact that the soft drinks sector had a slow recovery rate, economic losses were lower compared to the agricultural, fishery and forestry sector. From the policy perspective, stakeholders in the accommodation and food service sector should re-examine the sector and develop capacity against future pandemics. In addition, it is important for economic sectors to collaborate either vertically or horizontally by sharing information and risk to reduce the burden of future disruptions. Finally, the most vulnerable sector of the economy i.e. other services sector should form a major part of government policy decision-making when planning against future pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Dogbe, Wisdom, 2023. "An resilience analysis of the contraction of the accommodation and food service on the Scottish food industry," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334529, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc23:334529
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.334529
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerd Kjølle & Oddbjørn Gjerde, 2012. "Risk Analysis of Electricity Supply," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, in: Per Hokstad & Ingrid B. Utne & Jørn Vatn (ed.), Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 95-108, Springer.
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    Keywords

    Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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