IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aesc14/169724.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intensify, diversify, opt-out: testing farmer stated intentions to past and future CAP reform scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Barnes, Andrew Peter
  • Toma, Luiza
  • Mathews, Keith
  • Sutherland, Lee-Ann
  • Thomson, Steven

Abstract

A series of studies have explored the future intentions of farm households to reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper explores the intentions of Scottish livestock farmers under proposed reforms and, using the path dependency model, estimates the effect of past decisions on determining future intentions. A large representative telephone based survey of livestock farmers was conducted over the Summer of 2013. This yielded a response rate of 1,764 observations from livestock based holdings in Scotland. A multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the influence of various factors on either increasing or decreasing activity in agricultural and non-agricultural related areas. Whilst hypothesised increases in payment will lead to an intention to increase activity, a reduction in payment, in some cases, also leads to stated increases in activity both in agricultural and non-agricultural enterprises. We find that the most powerful predictors of change are response to past reform, farmer age and the identification of a successor within the farm household. This latter variable is highly significant and may negate concerns over uncertainty within short-term policy planning scenarios. Overall we argue for more appreciation of longer term trajectories of change at the farm level.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnes, Andrew Peter & Toma, Luiza & Mathews, Keith & Sutherland, Lee-Ann & Thomson, Steven, 2014. "Intensify, diversify, opt-out: testing farmer stated intentions to past and future CAP reform scenarios," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169724, Agricultural Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc14:169724
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.169724
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/169724/files/Andrew_Barnes_AES%20paper__Final_Conference.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.169724?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Brady & Konrad Kellermann & Christoph Sahrbacher & Ladislav Jelinek, 2009. "Impacts of Decoupled Agricultural Support on Farm Structure, Biodiversity and Landscape Mosaic: Some EU Results," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 563-585, September.
    2. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Stefan Tangermann & Alan Matthews & Davide Viaggi & Christophe Crombez & Louise Knops & Johan Swinnen, 2012. "The Common Agricultural Policy after 2013," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 47(6), pages 316-342, November.
    3. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    4. Beal, Diana J., 1996. "Emerging Issues in Risk Management in Farm Firms," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(03), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Mary Clare Ahearn & Jet Yee & Penni Korb, 2005. "Effects of Differing Farm Policies on Farm Structure and Dynamics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1182-1189.
    6. Tranter, R.B. & Swinbank, A. & Wooldridge, M.J. & Costa, L. & Knapp, T. & Little, G.P.J. & Sottomayor, M.L., 2007. "Implications for food production, land use and rural development of the European Union's Single Farm Payment: Indications from a survey of farmers' intentions in Germany, Portugal and the UK," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5-6), pages 656-671.
    7. Laure Latruffe & Aurélia Dupuy & Yann Desjeux, 2012. "What would farmers’ strategies be in a no-CAP situation? An illustration from France," Working Papers SMART 12-02, INRAE UMR SMART.
    8. Tate, Graham & Mbzibain, Aurelian & Ali, Shaukat, 2012. "A comparison of the drivers influencing farmers' adoption of enterprises associated with renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 400-409.
    9. Elodie Douarin & Alastair Bailey & Sophia Davidova & Matthew Gorton & Laure Latruffe, 2007. "Structural, location and human capital determinants of farmers’ response to decoupled payments," Working Papers hal-02822652, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giannoccaro, Giacomo & de Gennaro, Bernardo C. & De Meo, Emilio & Prosperi, Maurizio, 2017. "Assessing farmers' willingness to supply biomass as energy feedstock: Cereal straw in Apulia (Italy)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 179-185.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bartolini, Fabio & Brunori, Gianluca & Coli, Alessandra & Landi, Chiara & Pacini, Barbara, 2015. "Assessing the Causal Effect of Decoupled Payments on farm labour in Tuscany Using Propensity Score Methods," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211200, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Bartolini, Fabio & Viaggi, Davide, 2011. "Factors Affecting the Impact of CAP Scenarios on Farm Structure: An Analysis Based on Stated Intentions," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114244, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "Farm-household investment behaviour and the CAP decoupling: Methodological issues in assessing policy impacts," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 127-145, January.
    4. Elisa Gatto & Alba Marino & Guido Signorino, 2013. "Biodiversity and risk management in agriculture: what do we learn from CAP reforms? A farm-level analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa13p805, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Dupraz, Pierre & Latruffe, Laure, 2015. "Trends in family labour, hired labour and contract work on French field crop farms: The role of the Common Agricultural Policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 104-118.
    6. Latruffe, Laure & Dupuy, Aurelia & Desjeux, Yann, 2012. "What would farmers’ strategies be in a no-CAP situation? An illustration to France," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134989, Agricultural Economics Society.
    7. Viaggi, Davide & Raggi, Meri & Puddu, Marco & Bartolini, Fabio, 2013. "Farm/Household-level Simulation Results of Testing Policy and Other Scenarios," Working papers 157113, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    8. Lefebvre, Marianne & Raggi, Meri & Gomez Y Paloma, Sergio & Viaggi, Davide, 2014. "An analysis of the intention-realisation discrepancy in EU farmers’ land investment decisions," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 95(1).
    9. Zheng, Yanan & Goddard, Ellen W. & Qiu, Feng, 2018. "Exploring the Effect of Disease Outbreaks on Farm Structure Change: A Dynamic Analysis for Canadian Pig Industry," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273801, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Bartolini, Fabio & Sardonini, Laura & Viaggi, Davide, 2010. "Determinants of farm size expansion among eu farmers," MPRA Paper 24011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Farm growth and land concentration," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Latruffe, Laure & Dupuy, Aurélia & Desjeux, Yann, 2012. "What would farmers’ strategies be in a no-CAP situation? An illustration from France," Working Papers 207987, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    13. Jean Joseph Minviel & Timo Sipiläinen, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic frontier approach with persistent and transient inefficiency and unobserved heterogeneity," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 575-589, July.
    14. Taisuke Takayama & Tomoaki Nakatani & Tetsuji Senda & Takeshi Fujie, 2021. "Less‐favoured‐area payments, farmland abandonment and farm size: evidence from hilly and mountainous areas in Japan," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(3), pages 658-678, July.
    15. Lobley, Matt & Butler, Allan, 2010. "The impact of CAP reform on farmers' plans for the future: Some evidence from South West England," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 341-348, August.
    16. Solazzo, Roberto & Pierangeli, Fabio, 2016. "How does greening affect farm behaviour? Trade-off between commitments and sanctions in the Northern Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 88-98.
    17. Demirdogen, Alper & Olhan, Emine, 2018. "The Timing Impact of Agricultural Support Policies on Farmers’ Stated Intentions in Turkey," 162nd Seminar, April 26-27, 2018, Budapest, Hungary 271960, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Fabio Bartolini & Daniele Vergamini, 2019. "Understanding the Spatial Agglomeration of Participation in Agri-Environmental Schemes: The Case of the Tuscany Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, May.
    19. Roeder, Norbert & Lederbogen, Dirk & Trautner, Juergen & Bergamini, Ariel & Stofer, Silvia & Scheidegger, Christoph, 2010. "The impact of changing agricultural policies on jointly used rough pastures in the Bavarian Pre-Alps: An economic and ecological scenario approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2435-2447, October.
    20. Bartolini, Fabio & Viaggi, Davide, 2012. "An analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm: A case study in Emilia–Romagna (Italy)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 454-464.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aesc14:169724. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aesukea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.