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A Stochastic-Dynamic Model of Costly Reversible Technology Adoption

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  • Baerenklau, Kenneth A.
  • Knapp, Keith C.

Abstract

We develop a stochastic-dynamic model of technology adoption that imposes fewer restrictions on behavior than do previous studies of similar decision problems. Like these previous studies, our model is forward-looking and can be used to demonstrate the additional "hurdle rate" that must be met before adoption will take place when the future state of the world is uncertain. Unlike these previous studies, our approach does not impose the untenable assumptions that investment in a new technology is irreversible or that technologies have unlimited useful lifetimes. Rather, we address the more reasonable situation of costly reversibility and limited lifetimes. Our solution method utilizes Bellman's equation and standard dynamic programming techniques. Similar methods have been used previously to examine irreversible investment and adoption problems, but to our knowledge no application to costly reversible adoption has yet to appear in the literature. Our behavioral simulations, calibrated for irrigated cotton farming in California's San Joaquin Valley, demonstrate that the more restrictive approach can produce significant model prediction errors and can overlook important features of the adoption problem when decisions are reversible and technologies eventually become obsolete. Policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Baerenklau, Kenneth A. & Knapp, Keith C., 2005. "A Stochastic-Dynamic Model of Costly Reversible Technology Adoption," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19156, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19156
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19156
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Banerjee, Swagata (Ban) & Martin, Steven W. & Roberts, Roland K. & Larson, James A. & Hogan, Robert J., Jr. & Johnson, Jason L. & Paxton, Kenneth W. & Reeves, Jeanne M., 2007. "Adoption of Conservation-Tillage Practices in Cotton Production," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34842, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Goundan, Anatole & Faye, Amy & Henning, Christian H. C. A. & Collins-Sowah, Peron A., 2020. "Investing in risky inputs in Senegal: Implications for farm profit and food production," Working Papers of Agricultural Policy WP2020-07, University of Kiel, Department of Agricultural Economics, Chair of Agricultural Policy.

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