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Incorporating Epidemiological Projections Of Morbidity And Mortality Into An Open Economy Growth Model: Aids In South Africa

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  • Roe, Terry L.
  • Smith, Rodney B.W.

Abstract

HIV prevalence dynamics are introduced into a three sector, neoclassical growth model. The model is calibrated to South African national accounts data and used to examine the potential impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. Projections portend if left unchecked, the long run impact of HIV and AIDS could drive South African GDP to levels that are over 60% less than no-HIV levels, with AIDS death rates decreasing the long run stock of labor by over 60%.

Suggested Citation

  • Roe, Terry L. & Smith, Rodney B.W., 2004. "Incorporating Epidemiological Projections Of Morbidity And Mortality Into An Open Economy Growth Model: Aids In South Africa," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20254, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20254
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20254
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
    2. Brunner, Martin & Strulik, Holger, 2002. "Solution of perfect foresight saddlepoint problems: a simple method and applications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 737-753, May.
    3. Elbasha, Elamin H. & Roe, Terry L., 1996. "On Endogenous Growth: The Implications of Environmental Externalities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-268, September.
    4. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
    5. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
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    Health Economics and Policy;

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