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Cliométrie de l’engorgement en France. Evaluation théorique et empirique

Author

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  • Magali Jaoul-Grammare

    (LAMETA, Université Montpellier I.)

Abstract

Dans de nombreux pays, le système d’enseignement supérieur, comme le système économique, a connu des phases d’expansion suivies de périodes de stagnation ou de baisse. Aussi, la possibilité d’une liaison entre les deux systèmes a souvent été avancée. Pour Diebolt (2001), ces mouvements sont liés aux mouvements du marché du travail. Dans sa théorie de l’engorgement, il considère que le comportement des étudiants dans leurs choix de carrière dépend des revenus espérés et des disponibilités au coeur du secteur professionnel. L’objet de cet article, est de proposer un test économétrique de cette théorie, pour le cas de la France (1982-2002), à l’aide de la cointégration et de la causalité. Les relations mises en évidence dans notre analyse semblent aller dans le sens d’une confirmation de cette théorie. En effet, nous observons une substituabilité entre filières universitaires et entre les diverses professions d’une part et une complémentarité entre effectifs universitaires et professions correspondantes, par ailleurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2006. "Cliométrie de l’engorgement en France. Evaluation théorique et empirique," Working Papers 06-07, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:06-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causalité; engorgement; enseignement supérieur; marché du travail; salaires;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy

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